I just remembered the thread about how Carvile said that Kerry was still in 2nd place and how much we all dismissed it. I figured I would go back through the thread and bring back some of the worst pronouncements in the thread. I am not calling anyone out on this, I just think it will be fun to realize just how much we thought we knew and how wrong we all were less than 3 weeks ago. There were some quotes in the thread (
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/2/18201/65835 ) that still look pretty good in retrospect but those aren't nearly as much fun.
I have always revered Carville, but that is just bizarre. Kerry 2nd? No way! Kerry is no better than 5th, and what he really is as toast, just like the group behind him.
And I don't know whether he puts Dean as a 5-2 favorite or just that the odds are shortest on Dean at 5-2 against, but if it's the latter he's way off: Dean is definitely an odds-on favorite at this point.
The only people with a chance are Dean, Clark, and Gephardt, and the sand is trickling out of the hourglass for Gephardt.
"Things are more like they are now than they have ever been before." - President Dwight D. Eisenhower
by Trickster on Fri Jan 2nd, 2004 at 18:27:03 GMT
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Carville's odds look quite different from the Iowa Electronic Market probabilities:
Dean 63%, Clark 15%, Gephardt 6.5%, Clinton 5.5%, Kerry 4.3%, Rest of Field (Edwards) 2.9%, Lieberman 1.5%
Carville's odds expressed as probabilities are
Dean 29%, Kerry 20%, Gephardt 17%, Clark 13%, Edwards 7.7%, Lieberman 7.7%
Putting Kerry anywhere near Dean is truly bizarre. Either Carville a) has an agenda (probably true), b) has no clue what is going on with the Democratic electorate (quite possibly true), or c) is on drugs.
Got polls?
by CA Pol Junkie on Fri Jan 2nd, 2004 at 18:32:59 GMT
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Carville is one of the best political operatives out there. Why would we assume that someone this smart and savvy would be telling us his actual opinion when Kerry is so clearly out of it? Carville is cynical to the nth degree; don't trust what he says unless he has no incentives against telling the truth. Right now, there's a lot of back party dealings that we aren't aware of, and Carville is. As such, perhaps this statement is his genuine opinion, or maybe he and his backers are messing with the Presidential race.
by MattS on Fri Jan 2nd, 2004 at 18:33:05 GMT
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Maybe Carville is the best or perhaps Clinton shined his star. Carvelle has not been moving forward. He's entrenched in 92 and doesn't appear to realize that it's now 2004
The song that best describes him is Bruce Springsteen's "Glory Days"
by Kitty on Fri Jan 2nd, 2004 at 19:01:32 GMT
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I prefer the odds I gave two weeks ago:
Dean -- 1 to 2
Clark -- 4 to 1
Edwards -- 20 to 1
Gephardt -- 100 to 1
Kerry -- 100 to 1
Lieberman -- 100 to 1
If I adjusted them now, I'd probably nudge Clark to 3-1, and drop Edwards to about 50-1 (I was giving him a last chance to catch a spark).
Gephardt, Kerry, or Lieberman have all been moving in the wrong direction, momentum-wise ... they've been considered and cast aside. I just don't see any plausible scenario, short of a plane crash that takes out the other 5 candidates, where any of them suddenly finds a message that resonates with voters.
by Swopa on Fri Jan 2nd, 2004 at 18:34:56 GMT
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I for one, strongly second Kos's observation re: Kerry's standing. Quite apart from my personal feelings about Kerry, which went from positive before the race began to really negative now (I can say without hyperbole that he--and I would add Gephardt and Lieberman in this assessment--have essentially destroyed my sense of his integrity), the simple fact of his consistently very low standing in the important state polls shows that Carville is way off-base.
Just another example, I suppose, of the arrogance and self-delusion of so many of the Beltway pundits. Power corrupts the brain as well as one's moral compass.
by tankej on Fri Jan 2nd, 2004 at 19:03:14 GMT
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I don't know what Carville is smoking. Kerry and Lieberman have the same chances as I do -- zero. My percentage chances: Dean 66%, Clark 24%, Gephardt 9%, Edwards or someone else (Gore??) 1%. Expressed as odds: Dean 17-33, Clark 19-6, Gephardt 91-9, Edwards or someone else 99-1.
Send Dubya back to the ranch! BeatBushBlog
by Frederick on Fri Jan 2nd, 2004 at 21:04:37 GMT