Today, Peggy Noonan
wrote the following column. In it, she comments on President Bush's response:
Does he understand that what has happened in our gulf is as important as what is happening in the other gulf? Does he know in his gut that the existence of looting, chaos and disease in a great American city, or cities, is a terrible blow that may have deep implications? It was bad luck that on the day it became clear a bad storm was a catastrophe he was giving a major Iraq speech, and bad planning that he arrived back at the White House cradling a yippy puppy.
Given that the President declared a state of emergency for Louisiana on 2005-08-27 before Katrina hit, it's not just bad luck that he made a speech on Iraq, it's symptomatic of his failure to meet the ideal of a "CEO President."
What is a "CEO President"? The short answer:
someone who delegates instead of meddling. The CEO President is a figure head, a symbol, a living, breathing publiciity campaign, whose role is to be a galvanizing point (sometimes as an inspiration, sometimes as a lightning rod).
The "CEO President" does not, and should not be expected to, understand the intricate details surrounding public policy, including budgetary issues. These matters are expected to be handled by the Cabinet members.
Even if you grant the idea that the President's role is properly viewed this way, Bush has demonstrably failed with respect to how he has handled this issue.
He failed miserably under his own terms. He did not comprehend the logical connection between his correct action of pre-emptively declaring a state of emergency and the necessity of fulfilling his function as a galvanizer. This type of situation is not something to be delegated to a functionary and forgotten. It requires a personal touch.
The proper way to handle this situation would have been:
On 2005-08-27:
- Declare State of Emergency for Louisiana
- Make it immediately clear that his administration would commit all necessary resources to assist in the evacuation and recovery of all affected areas, once they were determined
- Create and document a clear-cut chain-of-command for coordinating the recovery across all involved agencies, at the local, state and federal levels. This would include a working means for escalating issues that were not being handled properly. This chain-of-command could be modified as necessary during the recovery process.
- Establish a means for coordinating volunteer resources, including those of other states. Of particular concern should have been the importation of food, medicine, clothing.
- Establish a task force to oversee the recovery specific to the oil industry. Despite the fact that this might be viewed as a sop to his contributors, re-establishing the oil industry infrastructure is a vital national interest.
- Lead the nation in a prayer for the safety of those in the path of the storm.
On 2005-08-28:
- Reiterate the commitment of federal resources for handling the evacuation and recovery of Alabama and Mississippi, and with the recovery in Florida.
- As the path of the storm became more apparent, the nation should have been prepared to institute conservation measures in the event that the refineries were damaged or taken out of service.
- Redraft the speeches planned for 2005-08-29 and 2005-08-30 to refocus on the federal response to Katrina.
On 2005-08-29:
- The photo-op in Arizona should have been refocused to emphasize concern over those affected by Katrina.
- The preparations made on 2005-08-27 should have been emphasised. The American people should have been called upon to anticipate activating them in the next 48 hours.
- With the refineries out of service, conservation measures should have been instituted until production resumes.
- Once it was clear that it would be weeks before the refineries were back on-line, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve should have been released to keep the supply levels up while conservation efforts kick in.
On 2005-08-30:
- Additional National Guard troops should have been mobilized to assist in the affected areas. NOTE: Martial law was declared in Jefferson and Plaquemines parishes at 09:35 CDT.
- As news began to come in indicating that the situation in New Orleans was degrading, the plans already laid out on 2008-08-28 for mobilizing non-local resources should have been activated.
- Again, the photo-op to drum-up support for Iraq should have been used to reinforce his concern regarding the impact of Katrina.
In this fashion, Bush could have demonstrated leadership in a moment of crisis, as well as improving his personal polling numbers. As two-way communication has increased between the citizens and the government, public confidence and "satisfaction" is
the key to effective performance in the Executive branch. Regardless of his true intentions and motivations, support for his chosen initiatives depends critically on his personal ability to persuade and inspire, just as it does in a corporation.
The ramifications of this particular example of failure are not yet fully apparent. However, they already include:
- The death of many citizens who were unable to evacuate prior to landfall and subsequently drowned.
- The death of many citizens who were inadequately cared for after being rescued from the flood waters.
- Dramatic increases in the price of gasoline nation-wide.
- Significant increases in the budget deficit for fiscal year 2005 and 2006.
Other ramifications that seem likely at this point:
- Pervasive, significant price increases due to sustained increases in the price of fuel.
- Unavailability of air travel in some regions of the US.
- Destruction of the already unstable financial basis of most US airlines.
- Derivative impacts on travel and other service industry positions, due to the combination of high fuel prices and less air travel.
Longer term ramifications that could result:
- Global economic recession.
- Significant increases in unemployment, even as counted by the current administration.
- The necessity of a rapid, unplanned withdrawl from Iraq as support for Bush personally continues to fall.
- Increased hostility by Americans toward both legal immigrants and illegal aliens.
- Formation of a significant political block organized against free trade.
- The return of the Republican party to a long period of minority status at all levels of government.
Due to their nearly unprecedented dominance of all levels of government, it will be nearly impossible for the Republicans to dodge responsibility for whatever ramifications do materialize. Unless they are extremely lucky, they may go the way of the Federalist party.