[Breaking news: We received the endorsement of the IBEW local, who is recommending to the National IBEW the full national endorsement and full PAC contribution. This is just the beginning of the Union endorsements. We've been told of many others in process. And for those who don't know it...we are the California Democratic Party Endorsed Candidate for the CA-48th. High level sources at National DFA say we have a near lock on a National endorsement from them.]
How does a Democrat win in CA-48?
Most non-locals think Orange County is dramatically Republican. It isn't.
Countywide the Republican registration is, I believe, 47%. (I could be off by a point or two..I don't feel like don't the research at the moment.Flu will do that to you.) But that's right, it isn't the 60/40 county you hear about all the time. There are other counties much more Republican than OC.
But on to the 48th Congressional: In this District the Republicans has an exact 50% registration. Democrats have only 27% but Independents (called in California 'decline to states') have 20%. Our Indpendent brethern tend to break to the Democrats in California and nationwide. So now look at Democrats and Indys=47% and the Republicans=50%. And remember this is a very socially liberal District. This isn't bible thumping central.
You are liable to see a Republican at a nightclub dancing right next to Dennis Rodman on a night when Dennis is in a dress. Really!
In the last 2004 Congressional race, with a candidate that didn't even campaign or form a campaign committee (no donations...no money), Democrats pulled 93,424 votes. Given that our registration at that point was only 110,000 we had a substantial cross-over. They didn't vote for the candidate who didn't campaign, they voted for the word Democrat.
In June 2005, by national survey, 26-32% of registered Republicans disagreed with the direction of the country and actions of the White House.
Today with the Presidents popularity below 40% can you imagine the increase in the percentage of Republicans that disagree with the actions of this Administration?
Steve Young is a strong candidate. He spoke this morning at a local Chamber of Commerce, not a territory generally happy with Democrats, and got a great response. This afternoon he spoke to a meeting of very, very high level business executives and large real estate companies and also got a very positive response.
After that he spoke to over 300 people at a retirement community and had a standing ovation when it was over.
So how is a Democrat going to win in CA-48?
A. By pulling the Democratic vote
B. By getting a substantial portion of the Independent vote
C. By getting the largest cross over of Republican votes ever seen in Orange County.
D. By out working all the rest!
Just one small story to illustrate the point. As Steve Young began to collect signatures for his nomination papers, the very first day in fact, he spoke to a large group of people about his candidacy. He got, out of the very first crowd, 80 signatures! When he got home that night he found that 28 Republicans had signed and tried to nominate him for the Democratic nomination.
That's the kind of crossover pull Steve Young has received at every venue.
Oh yeah...one more thing that will cause him to win....speaking 3-5 times a day,as I mentioned above, he will simply out work the others!
And yes, the Republican dirty tricks have already started...but that's for tomorrow. And I will be posting tomorrow...not only here but many places.
Take at look at the issues and his stands. It is Steve Young and The Best Shot Campaign. And the most dramatically innovative political website in the US.
Even though we are the ONLY Congressional Campaign in 2005 and have a good chance for a win, the blogsphere, partly because we haven't asked often, hasn't been financially supportive. We have over 2 dozen independent blogs with Steve Young donation pages and that been a significan help. But if you can donate to Steve direct page at Steve Young Donation page which is curently anemic, it will help the campaign and blog momentum. Give what you can. This is a good man and a good campaign. We only have 17 days until the Openn Primary.