Update [2005-9-29 19:8:45 by GOPhuckYourself]:Just got back from work and I see that this is Recommended. I have gone through the comments and there have been so many good suggestions that I am just going to create a new diary altogether. I will work with the following suggestions:
*** Use SurveyUSA's pre-election approval ratings for the original material instead of the 2004 election results, as I am comparing apples and oranges since the two data sources are not equivalent.
*** Make sure the Wisconsin numbers are correct ;)
*** Not just create a "points" differential, but use the formula "VRI = 100 * ( BushVote - BushApproval ) / BushVote" (thanks to MarkInSanFran for that)
*** Use xeju's suggestion of dividing the Bush vote by the VRI to get disatisfied Bush voters.
I'm just a guy with Excel and a little knowledge :) Hopefully I can work out a meaningful piece of data which shows how badly America feels that it has been deceived by this Administration
I was playing around with my electoral vote tracking poll spreadsheet and I came up with a completely unscientific way of measuring voter remorse.
I call it the VRI, or Voter Remorse Index.
To generate this, I took the 2004 presidential election totals and compared them to the most recent SurveyUSA 50-state tracking poll of Bush's approval/disapproval and came up with a number.
The red states, according to this formula, are suffering from serious voter's remorse.
The idea is simple. For instance, Bush won Idaho with 68.38% of the vote. In the recent SurveyUSA poll, Bush's approval rating in Idaho was 57%. Thus, his VRI is -11.38 in the state of Idaho.
The top 10:
1 South Dakota -15.91
2 Kansas -15.00
3 Oklahoma -14.57
4 Wyoming -13.86
5 Ohio -13.81
6 Virginia -13.68
7 Alabama -13.46
8 Missouri -13.30
9 New Jersey -13.24
10 Florida -13.10
All of these (with the exception of #9, New Jersey), were states that were carried by Bush, and four of these states Bush won with more than 60% of the vote.
Red states also make up 15 of the top 20 states in voter's remorse. Blue states make up 13 of the 20 states with the least voter's remorse (obviously because they did not vote as heavily for Bush).
Washington, DC, has, as expected, the least amount of voter's remorse, since only 9.34% of the district voted for Bush, and the district's approval rating of Bush is currently at 9%.
It is interesting to note that every state is suffering from voter's remorse. 29 of the 50 states have a VRI of -10 or greater.
Here is the complete list:
State Kerry Bush DIS APP VRI
----- ----------- ------- ------
SD 38.44 59.91 55 44 -15.91
KS 36.62 62.00 50 47 -15.00
OK 34.43 65.57 46 51 -14.57
WY 29.07 68.86 44 55 -13.86
OH 48.71 50.81 61 37 -13.81
VA 45.48 53.68 58 40 -13.68
AL 36.84 62.46 48 49 -13.46
MO 46.10 53.30 59 40 -13.30
NJ 52.92 46.24 63 33 -13.24
FL 47.09 52.10 58 39 -13.10
IN 39.26 59.94 50 47 -12.94
KY 39.69 59.55 50 47 -12.55
PA 50.92 48.42 61 36 -12.42
OR 51.35 47.19 63 35 -12.19
WV 43.20 56.06 52 44 -12.06
ND 35.50 62.86 46 51 -11.86
DE 53.35 45.75 63 34 -11.75
ID 30.26 68.38 40 57 -11.38
ME 49.00 44.00 64 33 -11.00
SC 40.90 57.98 51 47 -10.98
GA 41.34 57.93 51 47 -10.93
NE 32.68 65.90 42 55 -10.90
AZ 44.37 54.83 53 44 -10.83
TN 42.35 56.80 51 46 -10.80
NV 47.88 50.47 56 40 -10.47
CA 54.31 44.36 64 34 -10.36
AK 35.52 61.07 44 51 -10.07
MT 38.56 59.07 48 49 -10.07
NC 43.58 56.02 51 46 -10.02
IA 49.23 49.90 57 40 -9.90
NM 49.05 49.84 56 40 -9.84
MI 51.23 47.81 59 38 -9.81
CO 47.02 51.69 56 42 -9.69
WA 52.77 45.60 62 36 -9.60
TX 38.22 61.09 45 52 -9.09
NH 50.24 48.87 58 40 -8.87
RI 59.42 38.67 69 30 -8.67
UT 26.00 71.54 36 63 -8.54
NY 58.37 40.08 66 32 -8.08
CT 54.31 43.95 62 36 -7.95
MN 51.09 47.61 59 40 -7.61
AR 47.00 48.00 57 41 -7.00
IL 54.82 44.48 61 38 -6.48
LA 42.22 56.72 46 51 -5.72
MD 53.00 42.00 61 37 -5.00
MS 39.75 59.44 43 55 -4.44
HI 54.01 45.26 54 41 -4.26
WI 44.00 45.00 57 41 -4.00
MA 61.94 36.78 66 33 -3.78
VT 56.00 31.00 69 29 -2.00
DC 89.18 9.34 89 9 -0.34