Recently,
WTOP broke that Harris Miller was going to file for Virginia Senate. At the time, I decided to wait until after attending Kaine's inauguration to comment on it, in order to get a better grasp of where the state party stands on it. Now that I'm back from a snazzy weekend involving many a dancing Democrat, I felt I should give my initial thoughts on the races.
The review is a mixed one, but tentatively in favor of Miller.
Read on for a detailed dissection of the race as is.
The big question of mark revolves around former Navy Sec. under Reagan James Webb, and whether he will also file against Allen. Webb, IMO, is a mixed bag. On one hand, he brings the credentials of being a military man and former Republican, which will buy him major kudos in a still conservative state. However, this is also his main weakness as a nominee. You have to wonder, as a member of the state party, how much you can control someone who until very recently was GOP, and appears to have switched parties due to a dispute over use of the military. (I know, that's a funny way to say opposed to the war in Iraq). I mean, other than Iraq, how is he a Democrat? What will he vote for? How does he stand on domestic spending? Women? And is he even running? No one seems to know for sure.
One thing is for sure. Webb has some balls. But before we all jump up and down saluting him because of his view on Iraq, one I agree with, remember everything else that comes with that package. I think this Q and A from his website sums up both his appeal and the concerns.
But onto Harris Miller, who undoubtedly IS running, and has quit his job as a lobbyist for ITAA to do so.
Miller is entrenched with the state party, so he passes with flying colors the "Democrat" test. And don't let those donations to Republicans fool you. He was a lobbyist, that's what you have to do. He's very close with Mark Warner and Warner's staff have gotten to know him and like him, although they are staying largely above the fray until it's known whether or not there will be a primary. Also worthy of note is that Miller is close with Don Beyer, who was on people's early Senate watch-list, but decided against a run. Is his decision related? Who knows. It's quite likely that Beyer decided that he had tried and lost one too many times to try and run for statewide office again, but I bet you wouldn't have seen a Beyer-Miller primary, had he run...
Strongly in Miller's favor is deep pockets. You don't need to be wealthy to run for Senate, but practically, it sure as hell helps. Rumor is Miller might be willing to put in as much as $3 million of his own money, and that does not even take into consideration his circle of (loaded) friends in the Northern Virginia tech industry. Having a tech sector candidacy might also be a great way to keep those donors interested in statewide politics after Warner moves on to National grounds. Keeping Northern Virginia lucrative for Democratic fundraising is absolutely vital to creating the type of dynasty everyone is hoping for following Kaine's election.
Also in Miller's favor is that he has hired very good people, something which should never be underestimated. Competant staff can single-handedly make an election competitive, and usually you have to be worth a shit to get them.
Issue wise, he doesn't have positions up on his website yet, which has to be understandable considering he just threw his hat in the ring. In fact, his website for a newly minted candidate is pretty nice, and it better be considering his resume. His bio has a lot to say and is somewhat compelling. Playing against this however, is his lobbying years in which the tech industry pushed for lack of controls over tech-sector labor, and the importation of cheaper labor from India. I'm not sure how much this will hurt him among the Northern Virginia electorate. Just being part of the tech sector is usually enough to gain their support, but there might be some defections.
Lastly, you have to wonder how Miller can get his name out into the public and create a solid, viable campaign in such a short period of time, especially in a state used to seeing the same names on the ballot election after election (hence why it was assumed Beyer would run for Senate). Is this going to be similar to the Warner v. Warner match-up of 1996, in which Mark Warner held John Warner to his lowest re-elect numbers ever, but still was 5% shy of victory...and would it be bad for it to be so?
Virginia needs to develop its bench, and it wouldn't be a bad idea to create future titans, and this might be a good race to do it, considering that a defeat wouldn't be seen as too much of a black mark against a candidate and it is a statewide race that will quickly generate name recognition for the future. There are also other considerations, you have to assume that with Warner out, the Virginia race is not a DSCC priority, and really it shouldn't be by any logical calculation not based on the ideal of "fund every race", which is all well and good until you consider that you would have to take money OUT of say, the Montana race in order to fund a Virginia candidate. Thus, the desirability of a candidate with the ability to generate large funds and/or self-fund is even more important. Miller's Northern Virginia residency appeals to a completely different demographic than Allen's base, so it could become a turnout war, which the politically attuned Nova voters stand a decent chance of winning, without anything stirring up the rural regions fervor.
I am not entirely sold on Miller's positions or viability. The outsourcing problem worries me. However, the greatest vote of confidence I have in his favor seems to be that OTHER people are converted to the cause within the party. And those people, frankly, know him better than I do. Still, all of them seem to be holding their breath to see what Webb will do. No one I met has dismissed or confirmed his entrance. It's easy to be behind the only guy in the ring, but should a primary arise, I shall have to take everyone's temperature again.