Today is the 39th General Election in Canada. Things don't look that great for progressives and liberals (especially the Liberals...)
This is a LONG, but complete entry.
Right now, the Conservatives have a lead which is somewhere from six to ten points. A huge number of polls have determined that the general predicted result would be approximately 36-38% for the Tories (not that they're the 'Progressive' one's of old), with the Liberals at 26-30%, the NDP at 17-20%, the BQ at 10-12% and the Greens holding th bulk of the rest (6%).
While these numbers do not generally forecast majority government, there are two main types of polls: those that place the Liberals at higher than 27% and those who place them below. In the first situation, the Tories are generally expected to garner 120 to 130 seats, and the Liberals 80-90, with the Bloc Quebecois 54 to 62 and the remainder to the NDP, with one or at most two independents. However, the second type has the Liberals losing about 20 more seats to the Tories and puts them in competition with the Bloc for Official Opposition. The Liberals have never obtained less than 28% of the vote or 40 seats (that was in 1984) or third place.
This is particularly intriguing, since the Liberal party is generally conceived of as a shell where the leaders will do anything to get elected (in face Trudeau said that in 1963 when he was NDP). It may have particular difficulty in becoming relevant again, especially since it is plagued between more right-wing Liberals in Paul Martin's mold and more left-wing ones like Chretien and Trudeau were. Some of them are also so-cons who would repeal same-sex marriage and abortion in a free vote (of which the former Harper is planning to hold a free vote). A number of them would survive, leaving a potential opening for the NDP. There will also be a leadersip race where Michael Ignatieff (defender of Bush torture policy...) will be competing, among other Liberals, dividing the party. And if the government is a minority one, it could end at any time, exposing them.
A majority government is unlikely, but if one occurs... Things could also get frisky if the Tories get more than 150 seats, in which case they could convince a defection among these 'Blue Liberals' or depend on the likely independent (more in a moment). But there must be a blue storm surge in the '905' belt surrounding Toronto for that to occur, and the Liberals are leading now outside of the MoE. They can't get it elsewhere as they either dominate or are too far behind.
Now for a brief survey of the electoral landscape, from East to West. We note the intersting seats, for one reason or another. We have not noted every change: there are several sites, such as democraticspace.com and electionpreiction.org, that are doing just that.
NEWFOUNDLAND
Newfoundland has a Liberal tradition, especially outside of St. John's: the Liberals have the 5 rural seats,and the Tories the two st. John's seats. There won't be a blowout, but if the Tories gain anything, it will almost certainly be Avalon, the riding nearest St. John's, where Natural Resources Minister John Efford is retiring. The NDP is at 18% approximately but is very unlikely to make a breakthrough. Polls close here at 7PM EST, triggering the election special coverage on television.
THE MARITIMES
There has not been much movement in this region during the campaign, although the Tory-Liberal gap has narrowed since the second round of debates. The NDP is a clear third but still from 20-27%. They hold 3 seats, the Tories 5 and the Liberals the remaining 17. Of those, four are the tiny Prince Edward Island seats with 30,000 people in them, 7 are in New Brunswick out of ten and 6 are in Nova Scotia out of 11. The Tories hold 2 traditonal seats in NB and three in NS. Polls close at 7:30 EST. A few seats could change hands and abandon the Liberals. They are:
Central Nova - Deputy Tory leader Peter G. MacKay is expected to hold here. However, the NDP is firly strong in NS, came secoond last time and is campaign hard here. A sleeper pick for an upset (and a partcularly sweet one, since he engineered the CA/PC merger!)
Charlottetown - Harper visited PEI recently. This could be quite close.
Dartmouth - The NDP lost this seat in the last election and it is the most likely gain for them in the Maritimes.
Fredericton - Indian Affairs Minister Andy Scott may be able to hold here against a bad Tory candidate, but the NDP is waging a good campaign. Tossup.
Halifax West - The Tory candiate is a freak, and Fisheries Minister Geoff Regan should hold here, but the NDP could yet upset (on a very good night for them).
Madawaska-Restigouche - Strong Tory in Madawaska, strong NDP in Restigouche. Hard to predict, Liberal can run strong second in both to win.
Miramichi - An independent Liberal could be the kiss of death for the real, so-con Liberal.
Saint John - Best chance for a Tory pickup in the Maritimes.
South Shore/St. Margaret's - The Tories could lose here in the event of severe strategic voting, but that is unlikely.
Tobique/Mactoguac - Seat projections call for a Liberal hold, but this riding bordering Maine will in all likelihood turn blue.
QUEBEC
The province least resembling the others has played a pivotal role in this campaign. The BQ are only run here, and hold 54 out of 75 seats with the Liberals holding the remainder. But things are going to change. Polls close at 9:30 EST from here until BC and the real reporting of results begins. Quebec has three regions in this election: Montreal, Quebec City and the rest.
The Montreal region could be subdivided in two: the Island and the suburbs. There, the BQ win running away, and will almost certainly win the two seats they don't posess. The Island is the intersting part and is divisible into three. The West Island was hard-core Liberal in 2004 and should hold again, while the BQ's four ridings in the East are bomb-proof. The ridings in the center of the Island are generally in play: the Liberals held all of them in 2004, but only by about 16,000 votes for all six ridings, and half of the plurality was obtained in one riding. Most are expected to switch.
Bourassa - The Liberals won by 8000 votes, and the incumbent is fairly popular, so they may hold it.
Jeanne-LeBer - With a plurality of only 70 votes for Heritage Minister Liza Frulla, she's seems to be toast - but she's a strong campaigner while her BQ opponent is not.
Outremont - Normally the BQ should be able to win this from the clown who is Jean Lapierre, the Transport Minister and 'Quebec lieutenant'. However, the NDP decided that this was their best (and only) chance of a seat in la Belle Province and sent a famous economist as their candidate. With eight other candidates, including a strong Conservative nominee who cannot win, this is a tossup and depends on GOTV.
Papineau - The BQ candidate is a radical feminist and has ties to the founders of the 'Ton Ton Macoute' clan in Haiti (terrorists?). Foreign Affairs Minister Pierre Pettigrew is seen as out of touch with the riding, but he may be able to bank on increasing turnout in Parc-Extension, which was at 30% last time.
LaSalle-Emard - Will not go other than Liberal unless there is a wipeout. But look for Paul Martin to resign sonner rather than later.
The rest of Quebec has the Liberals at about 12%. In essence, they're virtually wiped out. However, the Conservatives have reached 30% outside of Montreal and are ready to win a few seats, especially near Quebec. The BQ are at 45%.
Abitibi/Baie-James/Nunavik/Eeyou - Essentially a northern riding with many aboriginals (who flatly oppose sovereignity), the Liberals might regain this one if they show up. This is their only target.
Brome/Missisquoi - The 'PC' or 'Progressive Canadian' party was formed by Red Tories unhappy with the merger. They're not much of a factor... except here where political dinosaur William Heward Grafftey is running for them. Whether he'll win, or merely split the federalist vote, remains to be seen.
Hull/Aylmer - The BQ could win, on a good night, in this riding which is part of Ottawa in all but name and administration.
Jonquiere/Alma - The Tories are running a former MP and potential cabinet member, but this is the most sovereignist area in the province and the former hideaway of Lucien Bouchard. The Liberal candidate admitted defeat earlier.
Levis/Bellechasse - Half Quebec suburb, half rural, it dumed the PQ big time in the 2003 provincial elections and the PLQ machine on the ground is supporting the Conservative who got more than 20% last time. Likely Tory pickup.
Lotbiniere - The Tories were second last time, this is next to Quebec City and the ADQ, who supports the Tories, has a machine in both provincial ridings making this one up. Another Tory gain.
Montmagny/Riviere-du-Loup - ADQ leader Mario Dumont holds this riding in part provincially, and it is near Quebec City, but the BQ should hold here unless the Tories win about 165 seats.
Pontiac - Former provincial liberal Lawrence Cannon is a good bet to win, but the BQ is very close and could surprise. Harper confirmed he would be in cabinet if elected, possibly as Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minster, to shore him up.
Portneuf/Jacques-Cartier - The former shock-radio host Andre Arthur (see Rush Limbaugh) is running here and led in a recent local poll. However, he may not have the ressources to GOTV, unlike the Bloc, and is competing with the Conservatives.
Shefford - A riding that likes being in the opposition (was Lapierre's riding during Mulroney). Whistleblower Jean Lambert is running for the Tories. This is likely the last seat they could obtain before reaching a majority.
ONTARIO
This is the battleground. The Liberals held around 74 seats, the Tories 25 and the NDP 7. That was with the Liberals leading by 10 percentage points in the province; now, they're neck and neck. The NDP is increasing and stands at about 22% compared to 18% last time. The Tories and the NDP both need to double their seat count to achieve what could be called 'sucess'. Often the targets are different, but not always...
Toronto is a Liberal fortress with the NDP only holding Toronto-Danforth, Jack Layton's seat. They must gain 2 to 4 extra seats. The Conservatives have litle hope of a breakthrough.
Beaches/East York - The Liberal plurality was fairly large last time, and Green Party laeder Jim Harris is running here. However, he has failed to impress and what we may consider as Green in the US would be NDP - Harris is a former PCer and the party is the home of eco-capitalists and protest votes (my neighbour has a sign but also posesses several cars). Impossible to tell. The conservatives could split the vote, however.
Davenport - This was nasty last time. Considered safe for the Liberals because of hisory but the campaign sends a diferent message.
Don valley East - This is the absolute maximum of potential Tory gains in Toronto. Really absolute.
Etobicoke/Lakeshore - The Tories best hope of a breakthrough, and the Liberal canidate is Michael Ignatieff. NDP not a factor. OY!
Parkdale/High Park - Was close last time for the NDP. High priority. At least uncertain.
St. Paul's - If the Liberals really stumble, Peter Kent could snatch this rich riding, aided by a strong NDP candidate (chief economist for a bank).
Trinity/Spadina - Don't assume anything - most likely NDP pickup but the Liberals are campaigning like Republicans. This is where the cancelled university poll fiasco occurred.
The 905 is where the Tories must break; there are a couple of NDP targets.
Ancaster/Dundas/Flamborough/Westdale - Tory will win on the vote split. Hopefully, this Promise Keeper will be a one-time occurence.
Burlington - Incumbent Liberal could hold with some personal vote.
Hamilton East/Stoney Creek - This is Sheila Copps old riding. Last time was supposedly a perfect storm for the NDP, but there is a good chance of a pickup nonetheless.
Hamilton Mountain - Open seat the NDP could pick up. The Tories are an unknown factor, having a strong showing last time.
Mississauga-Erindale - Carolyn Parrish's old seat. The Liberals nominated a strong Islamist. Only a 7% swing is required.
Newmarket/Aurora - Can Stronach survive? We hope so - the new Conservative candidate is a bit of a, shall we say, freak.
Oakville - See Burlington. Bonnie Brown has been suggested as a potential Liberal leader.
Oshawa - The only seat the Tories might lose in Ontario. The NDP came within 500 voteds last time and the Liberals have seemingly collapsed.
Welland - An NDP gain here is possible, but unlikely.
The Tories dominate traditionally Liberal Eastern Ontario in the polls, and will do so in terms of seats.
Ottawa Centre - The only potential NDP seat for hundreds of kilometres around, they need to hold it since Ed Broadbent retired. Greens are strong, Liberal candidate is mired in some lack of ethics. They should hold by a very small margin.
Ottawa South - Whistleblower Allan Cutler is the star candidate for the Tories rathen than an NDP star candidate. But the Grits will like;y hold.
Peterborough - There are some rumblings that the NDP is competitive, but probably not enough.
Southwestern Ontario is more of the same, with many seats expected to switch.
Guelph - The Liberal is an evangelical, the Tory is a social liberal, the dipper was endorsed by the local paper. Difficult to predict.
Huron/Bruce - Some people say the NDP is competitive - judging by the nature of the riding this will be a Tory gain however.
Kitchener/Conestoga - See Ancaster.
London/Fanshawe - Liberal MP quit party over same-sex marriage, was close three way race, last time, potential NDP gain.
Northern Ontario is chiefly an NDP/Grit battle zone. Most of the seats could be in play - in fact the NDP actually has a slight lead. The two more southerly ridings are Tory/Grit battles.
THE PRAIRIES
This is conservative territory. The Tories already hold 46 out of 59 seats, if you include the Territories. In Alberta they are approaching 70%, elsewhere above 40% with a clear split. There are only a few seats that they could gain, but they are not the only players:
Churchill - The NDP dumped the incumbent who ran as an independent in this rural Northern Manitoba riding after she voted against same-sex marriage, while the Liberals ran a 'star' candidate. Conservatives are nowhere here. A poll gave the NDP a slight lead, but this is a very peculiar riding.
Churchill River - Northern Saskatchewan this time, with a Conservative incumbent. Could be knocked off if left-wing vote unites (which was further split by an independent last time).
Edmonton/Strathcona - Jack Layton visited this riding during the home stretch. clearly he wouldn't do it for fun...
Palliser - High chance of NDP win.
Regina/Lumsden/Lake Centre - A collapse of the Liberal or NDP vote would be necessary to claim the riding from the Tories. Likely hold.
Regina/Qu'appelle - A very uncertain riding, traditionally NDP but the candidate (Lorne Nystrom) has overstayed his welcome.
Selkirk/Interlake - Former Governor General Ed Schreyer is running for the NDP, but he last had an influence a long time ago, and the Tories took nearly 50% in 2004.
Winnipeg South Centre - Axworthy's old riding could go blue, as a local poll suggests. The NDP vote will play the role of kingmaker.
BRITISH COLUMBIA
This is the most volatile province, with numerous three way races. Polls close at 10:00 EST. It tends to avoid the government, and the Tories have sharply receded from a week ago, with about 36%. A good chunk of this is located in the Interior which they dominate, and losses for them are likely from their 22 of 36 seats. Not that the NDP will gain unabated; this is the only region where the Liberals can hope to make gain.
With the exceptions of the North Coast and the Southern Interior, the Tories will sweep the Interior and extend into the outermost edges of the Lower Mainland. Vancouver is Liberal with some NDP, while the inner suburbs are mainly tossups. Vancouver island is trending NDP. The Greens are strongest in BC but will likely not win anything.
Abotsford - Safe Conservative at all times. So why did the Liberal candidate try to bribe the NDP one into resigning???
Burnaby/New Westminster - The NDP is in real danger of losing this seat to the Liberals. However, the NDP traditionally excells at GOTV.
Esquimalt/Juan de Fuca - The Liberal is running away from his own party, but should be able to hold.
New Westminster/Coquitlam - The closest seat in Canada last election. Tory MP is a nut. Will be called in the wee morning hours.
Newton/North Delta - The Tory MP was scandal-tainted and retired. Mystery seat.
Saanich/Gulf Islands - This is the Greens best seat. They should be kingmakers and sufficiently split the vote for the Conservative MP to slip through.
Surey North - Chuck Cadman may have been conservative (after being booted from the party) but with him gone, the NDP, not the Tories, look like the frontrunners.
Vancouver Island North - Was close last time, and will be close again.
Vancouver Centre - Svend Robinson is making a comeback here. His ring incident responsible for his resignation in the first place may hold him back, but local polls are trending in his favour.
Vanouver Kingsway - Industry Minister David Emerson made a bizarre insult to Jack Layton, and expect them to return the favour.
West Vancouver/Sunshine Coast - Incumbent MP has retired, Liberal was close last time, and there is a sizeable chunk of NDP and Green votes to fish in.
As you can see, the result of Canadian elections depends on the results of the various regions. Harper has been able to run two campaigns: the National one about change, and the one in Quebec, about federalism. Just like the Liberals did...
As for today, it seems that turnout may increase from last time, and that the Tories will hold while the NDP is on an upswing, also calling upon Liberal voters to strategically vote NDP. Looks like an interesting, although slightly depressing, election night on our hands.
Do post any comments or corrections you mave have.