As part of an ongoing series, I have been keeping track of the playing field leading up to the 2006 Elections, and ranking the races in terms of likelihood of success. The initial overviews of the races were compiled in late September and focused mostly on district demographics. The GOP seat diary is here:
http://www.dailykos.com/.... The Dem one is here:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
I updated this analysis with a focus on challenger strength and posted that update in early November. The GOP seat diary can be found here: http://www.dailykos.com/.... The Dem seat diary is here: http://www.dailykos.com/....
I updated the GOP seats in December. Those are here: http://www.dailykos.com/.... I plan to keep updating about once a month.
Today, I will update the GOP seats. I will do the Dem seats sometime in the next week. These rankings take into account district makeup, challenger and incumbent strength, scandal, and fundraising (the final 2005 reports are finally out). The rankings come from a mathematical formula which I explained in past diaries but is subject to tinkering based on my own gut feelings. Today, to save space, I will list each race, the major candidates, and their fundraising totals but save the commentary.
In summary, my expansive lists include 87 GOP seats and 44 Dem seats. These take in both races in evenly balanced districts with weak challengers and races in traditionally safe districts where there are particularly strong or well-financed challengers. Both categories are major longshots. Recruiting is still going on in the 47 states that have not yet had filing deadlines, so this field could still expand. By the end of this month, the field should basically be set.
For ease, I have attempted to assign the races to three tiers. The first are races where the non-incumbent party has a near-even or better chance of winning. The second tier are races that will be very competitive, but a win by the challenger party would be a distinct upset. The third tier are the longshots, but ones that have at least one of the following components: open seat with candidates on both sides, embattled incumbent, swing district, strong or well-financed challenger. Previous rank is in parentheses.
GOP Seats
First Tier
1. Iowa 01 (OPEN) (1): Fmr IA Trial Lawyers Assn. Pres. Bruce Braley (D) (391K raised/289K on hand), Bus. Rick Dickinson (D) (252/118), or Fmr. State Sen./2004 Nominee Bill Gluba (D) (108/28) vs. State Rep. Bill Dix (R) (379/257), Fmr. IA GOP Chair Brian Kennedy (R) (285/164), or Bus. Mike Whalen (R) (334/84).
2. Colorado 07 (OPEN) (2): Fmr. State Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D) (520/401), Fmr. State Rep. Peggy Lamm (D) (245/139), or Atty. Herb Rubinstein (D) (40/1) vs. CO Higher Educ. Comm. Rick O'Donnell (R) (653/517).
3. Arizona 08 (OPEN) (3): State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) (248/242) or TV News Anchor Patty Weiss (D) (just announced) vs. Fmr. State Rep. Randy Graf (R) (68/26), State Rep. Steve Huffman (just announced), or Fmr. AZ GOP Chair Mike Hellon (R) (just announced).
4. Connecticut 02 (Simmons) (8): Fmr. State Rep./2002 Nom. Joe Courtney (D) (532/451) vs. Rep. Rob Simmons (R) (1116/803).
5. Connecticut 04 (Shays) (5): Westport Selectwoman/2004 Nom. Diane Farrell (D) (585/452) vs. Rep. Chris Shays (R) (1336/893).
6. New Mexico 01 (Wilson) (6): NM Atty General Patricia Madrid (D) (524/431) vs. Rep. Heather Wilson (R) (1339/979).
7. Indiana 09 (Sodrel) (4): Fmr. Rep. Baron Hill (D) (628/564) vs. Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) (941/612).
8. Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) (7): Atty/2004 Nom. Lois Murphy (D) (817/628) vs. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) (1448/1075).
9. North Carolina 11 (Taylor) (14): Fmr. NFL QB Heath Shuler (D) (441/353) vs. Rep. Charles Taylor (R) (635/19).
10. California 50 (OPEN; Special Election 4/11, Runoff 6/6) (11): Prof./2004 Nom. Francine Busby (D) (520/371) vs. Fmr. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) (7/191), State Sen. Bill Morrow (R) (236/214), Fmr. State Rep./Radio Host Howard Kaloogian (R) (171/153), Fmr. Del Mar Mayor Richard Earnest (R) (239/201), or Bus. Alan Uke (R) (424/190).
11. Wisconsin 08 (OPEN) (9): Dr. Steve Kagan (D) (1341/1231), Fmr. Brown Cty. Exec. Nancy Nusbaum (D) (344/273), Consult. Jamie Wall (D) (407/323)
12. Florida 22 (Shaw) (18): State Sen. Min. Ldr. Ron Klein (D) (1344/1145) vs. Rep. Clay Shaw (R) (1170/1476).
13. Texas 22 (DeLay) (16): Fmr. Rep. Nick Lampson (D) (1600/1292) vs. Rep. Tom DeLay (R) (3073/1445) or Atty. Tom Campbell (R) (58/53) vs. Fmr. GOP Rep. Steve Stockman (I) (just announced).
14. Indiana 08 (Hostettler) (15): Vanderburgh Cty. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) (445/371) vs. Rep. John Hostettler (R) (75/37).
15. Kentucky 04 (Davis) (not ranked): Fmr. Rep. Ken Lucas (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) (940/441).
16. Ohio 18 (Ney) (19): Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer (D) (253/222) or Atty Zack Space (D) (74/69) vs. Rep. Bob Ney (R) (1053/582).
17. Minnesota 06 (OPEN) (12): Child Safety Advocate/2004 Nom. Patty Wetterling (D) (just announced) or Fmr. MN Trans. Comm. Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) (303/185) vs. State Sen. Michelle Bachman (R) (314/210), State Rep. Jim Knoblauch (R) (374/237), State Rep. Phil Krinkie (R) (357/266), Bus. Jay Esmay (R) (53/27).
18. Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick) (10): Iraq vet Patrick Murphy (D) (255/148) or Fmr. Bucks Cty. Comm. Andy Warren (D) (53/38) vs. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) (1261/1186)
19. Washington 08 (Reichert) (17): Fmr. Microsoft Exec. Darcy Burner (D) (205/112) vs. Rep. Dave Reichert (R) (1149/580).
20. Illinois 06 (OPEN) (13): Iraq vet Tammy Duckworth (D) (121/105), 2004 Nom. Christine Cegelis (D) (228/39), or Prof. Lindy Scott (D) (101/79) vs. State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) (1067/835).
21. Kentucky 03 (Northup) (not ranked): Iraq vet Andrew Horne (D) (just announced) or Publisher John Yarmuth (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Anne Northup (R) (1200/1107).
22. Connecticut 05 (Johnson) (20): State Sen. Chris Murphy (D) (421/383) or Waturbury Councilman Paul Vance (D) (30/8) vs. Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) (1265/2184).
23. Virginia 02 (Drake) (32): Virginia Beach Revenue Comm. Phil Kellam (D) (104/104) or Veteran/2004 Nom. David Ashe (D) (38/44) vs. Rep. Thelma Drake (R) (477/267).
Second Tier
24. Indiana 02 (Chocola) (24): Atty/2004 Nom. Joe Donnelley (D) (255/186) vs. Rep. Chris Chocola (R) (845/866).
25. Florida 13 (OPEN) (39): Bank Pres. Christine Jennings (D) (402/306), Atty./2002 & '04 Nom. Jan Schneider (D) (69/69), or Mike LaFevers (41/17) vs. Car Dealership Owner Vern Buchanan (R) (1110/627), Banker Tramm Hudson (R) (513/430), or State Rep. Nancy Detert (R) (73/49).
26. Iowa 02 (Leach) (28): Prof. David Loebsack (D) (95/87) vs. Rep. Jim Leach (R) (180/122).
27. Ohio 01 (Chabot) (21): Cincinnati Councilman John Cranley (D) (188/179) vs. Rep. Steve Chabot (R) (289/599).
28. Ohio 15 (Pryce) (23): Franklin Cty. Comm. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) (172/169) vs. Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) (749/943).
29. New Jersey 07 (Ferguson) (27): State Rep. Linda Stender (D) (93/87) vs. Rep. Mike Ferguson (R) (1163/928).
30. New Hampshire 02 (Bass) (33): Atty./2004 Nom. Paul Hodes (D) (114/70) or Bus. Bret Clemons (D) (27/21) vs. Rep. Charles Bass (R) (251/234).
31. Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon) (40): Iraq vet Bryan Lentz (D) (117/102) or Fmr. Admiral Joe Sestak (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Curt Weldon (R) (259/266).
32. Colorado 04 (Musgrave) (22): State Rep. Angie Paccione (D) (246/165) vs. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (D) (1575/1014).
33. Minnesota 02 (Kline) (42): State Sen. Sharon Marko (D) (just announced) or Fmr. FBI Agent Colleen Rowley (D) (170/84) vs. Rep. John Kline (R) (647/465).
34. Florida 09 (OPEN) (29): Fmr. Hillsborough Cty. Comm. Phyllis Busansky (D) (182/172), Fmr. DoD official Greg Rublee (D) (80/33), or Atty. Bill Mitchell (D) (39/21) vs. State Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R) (976/719).
35. New York 29 (Kuhl) (25): Fmr. Naval Officer Eric Massa (D) (218/88) vs. Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) (620/421).
36. West Virginia 02 (Capito) (36): Fmr. WV EPA Sec'y/Fmr. WV Dem Chair Mike Callaghan (79/60), State Rep. Mark Hunt (D) (just announced), or South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) (688/587).
37. California 11 (Pombo) (53): Pilot/Navy vet Steve Filson (D) (156/102), Mathematician/2004 Nom. Jerry McNerney (D) (105/69), or Univ. Dean Margee Ensign (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Richard Pombo (R) (1088/842) or Fmr. Rep. Pete McCloskey (R) (just announced).
38. Arizona 01 (Renzi) (35): AZ Indian Affairs Comm. Jack Jackson (D) (140/58) vs. Rep. Rick Renzi (R) (938/608).
39. Pennsylvania 15 (Dent) (not ranked): Fair Trade Activist Bob Dodge (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Charlie Dent (R) (610/543).
40. North Carolina 08 (Hayes) (31): Iraq vet Tim Dunn (D) (80/47) or Teacher Larry Kissell (19/4) vs. Rep. Robin Hayes (R) (836/734).
41. Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry) (not ranked): Fmr. NE Lt. Gov. Maxine Moul (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) (574/388).
42. Illinois 11 (Weller) (46): Fmr. CIA Agent John Pavich (D) (244/191) vs. Rep. Jerry Weller (R) (896/692).
43. Nevada 02 (OPEN) (30): NV Univ. Sys. Regent Jill Derby (D) (246/212) vs. NV Sec. State Dean Heller (R) (514/442), State Rep. Dawn Gibbons (R) (415/221), State Rep. Sharron Angle (R) (365/315).
44. Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht) (37): Teacher/Nat'l Guard vet Tim Walz (D) (118/40) vs. Gil Gutknecht (R) (476/620).
Third Tier
45. Florida 24 (Feeney) (55): Veterinarian Andy Michaud (D) (174/106) vs. Rep. Tom Feeney (R) (676/619)
46. New Hampshire 01 (Bradley) (26): Publisher Gary Dodds (D) (90/69), State Rep. Peter Sullivan (D) (just announced), Atty. Pete Duffy (D) (just announced), or Rochester City Dem Chair Carol Shea-Porter (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) (314/255).
47. New York 24 (Boehlert) (not ranked): Oneida Cty. DA Michael Arcuri (D) (just announced), Atty. Leon Koziol (D) (just announced), Dr. Les Roberts (D) (50/48), or Fmr. Cortland Mayor Bruce Tytler (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R) (416/232) or Fmr. Seneca Falls Mayor Brad Jones (R) (64/49).
48. New York 26 (Reynolds) (45): Bus./2004 Nom. Jack Davis (D) (0/0) vs. Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) (1549/2352).
49. California 26 (Dreier) (58): Bus. Russ Warner (D) (118/107) vs. Rep. David Dreier (R) (947/3057).
50. Florida 08 (Keller) (not ranked): Bus. Charlie Stuart (D) (325/201), Orange Cty. Comm. Homer Hartage (D) (46/20), or Teacher/2004 Nom. Stephen Murray (10/0) vs. Rep. Ric Keller (R) (490/977).
51. New York 19 (Kelly) (50): Atty. Judy Aydelott (D) (325/261), Singer John Hall (58/44), High school principal Ben Shuldiner (D) (94/83), Yorktown Councilman Jim Martorano (D) (10/1), or Political consult. Darren Rigger (D) vs. Rep. Sue Kelly (R) (893/899) or Log Cabin GOP Nat'l Field Dir. Jeff Cook (R) (55/24).
52. Pennsylvania 04 (Hart) (59): Manufacturing Exec. Georgia Berner (D) (341/159) or Fmr. Hospital Exec. Jason Altmire (D) (113/74) vs. Rep. Melissa Hart (R) (840/601).
53. New York 20 (Sweeney) (61): Atty. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) (371/286) vs. Rep. John Sweeney (R) (780/701).
54. New York 25 (Walsh) (not ranked): Bus. Dan Maffei (D) (100/96) or Atty. Paloma Capanna (D) (23/20) vs. Rep. Jim Walsh (298/509).
55. Florida 16 (Foley) (not ranked): Rancher Tim Mahoney (D) (272/209) vs. Rep. Mark Foley (R) (627/2405).
56. Montana at Large (Rehberg) (49): State Rep. Monica Lindeen (D) (162/95) vs. Rep. Dennis Rehberg (R) (428/474).
57. Wyoming at Large (Cubin) (not ranked): Teton Cty. School Bd. Pres. Gary Trauner (D) (110/102) vs. Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) (349/130).
58. Kentucky 02 (Lewis) (43): State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) (101/86) vs. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) (510/635)
59. Michigan 11 (McCotter) (34): Radio Host Tony Trupiano (D) (13/12) or Bus. Consult. Ray Raczkowski (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) (378/380).
60. Illinois 10 (Kirk) (48): Atty. Zane Smith (D) (62/57) or Marketing Exec. Dan Seals (D) (60/54) vs. Rep. Mark Kirk (R) (1327/1226).
61. Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) (38): Atty./2004 Nom. Steve Reifman (D) (3/0), Radio host Nancy Skinner (D) (just announced), Atty. Rhonda Ross (D) (just announced), Teacher Frank Cona (D) (just announced), or John Ashcraft (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) (1130/1034) or Fmr. State Rep. Pan Godchaux (R) (just announced).
62. Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy) (54): Bus. Chad Kluko (D) (just announced) or Navy vet Tom Kovach (D) (11/2) vs. Rep. Tim Murphy (R) (832/690).
63. Indiana 03 (Souder) (not ranked): Ft. Wayne Councilman Tom Hayhurst (D) (105/88) vs. Rep. Mark Souder (R) (82/42).
64. Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood) (57): Prof./Naval Reserve Off. Chris Carney (D) (94/78) vs. Rep. Don Sherwood (R) (537/498).
65. Michigan 07 (Schwarz) (not ranked): Scio Twp. Trustee Chuck Ream (D) (just announced), Paralegal/2004 Nom. Sharon Renier (D) (just announced), or Police officer Darryl Campbell (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) (658/366) or Fmr. State Rep. Tim Walberg (R) (163/163).
66. California 04 (Doolittle) (not ranked): Fmr. Air Force Off. Charles Brown (D) (36/24) or Non-profit Pres. Lisa Rea (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. John Doolittle (R) (507/299) or Auburn Vice-Mayor Mike Holmes (R) (56/11).
67. New York 13 (Fossella) (not ranked): Atty. Stephen Harrison (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Vito Fossella (R) (804/573).
68. Ohio 03 (Turner) (63): Veterinarian Stephanie Studebaker (D) (9/9) or Atty. David Fierst (D) (7/5) vs. Rep. Mike Turner (R) (304/189).
69. California 45 (Bono) (60): College Off./CA Student Aid Comm. Member David Roth (D) (164/100) vs. Rep. Mary Bono (R) (274/205).
70. Oklahoma 05 (OPEN) (not ranked): Oklahoma Cty. Clerk Patti Presley (D) (44/39) or Teacher/2004 Nom. Bert Smith (D) (4/1) vs. OK Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin (R) (380/294), OK Corp. Comm. Denise Bode (R) (339/310), State Rep. Fred Morgan (151/132), or Fmr. State Rep. Bill Graves (just announced).
71. New Jersey 03 (Saxton) (52): Atty./Navy vet Richard Sexton (D) (38/36) vs. Rep. Jim Saxton (R) (564/1435).
72. Pennsylvania 03 (English) (62): Author/2004 Nom. Steve Porter (D) (12/21) vs. Rep. Phil English (R) (560/323).
73. Virginia 11 (Davis) (47): Atty. Andy Hurst (D) (48/31) or 2004 Nom. Ken Longmyer (D) (24/3) vs. Rep. Tom Davis (R) (1273/1652).
74. Illinois 15 (Johnson) (not ranked): Dr./2004 Nom. David Gill (D) (57/38) vs. Rep. Tim Johnson (R) (109/80).
75. Ohio 12 (Tiberi) (not ranked): Teacher Nick Singh (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Pat Tiberi (848/1335).
76. New Mexico 02 (Pearce) (not ranked): Fmr. Minister Albert Kissling (just announced) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R) (671/406).
77. Kansas 02 (Ryun) (not ranked): Pharma researcher/2004 Nom. Nancy Boyda (D) (2/0) vs. Rep. Jim Ryun (R) (320/234).
78. New Jersey 05 (Garrett) (56): Fmr. McGreevey aide Paul Aronsohn (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Scott Garrett (R) (416/291).
79. Michigan 08 (Rogers) (44): Fmr. CIA agent Jim Marcinkowski (D) (7/7) or Prof. Eric Crosley (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. Mike Rogers (R) (597/997).
80. Ohio 14 (LaTourette) (51): Prof. Lewis Katz (D) (19/15) or Meteorologist Palmer Peterson (D) (no report) vs. Rep. Steve LaTourette (R) (720/462).
81. Arizona 05 (Hayworth) (not ranked): Atty. Larry King (D) (just announced) vs. Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) (550/498).
82. Texas 32 (Sessions) (not ranked): Fmr. Judge/Atty. Will Pryor (D) (75/69) vs. Rep. Pete Sessions (R) (890/913).
83. Ohio 04 (OPEN) (not ranked): Atty. Richard Siferd (D) (13/12) vs. State Sen. Jim Jordan (R) (295/282) or State Rep. Mike Gilb (R) (50/48).
84. Nebraska 02 (Terry) (not ranked): Atty. Jim Esch (D) (124/13) vs. Rep. Lee Terry (R) (483/283).
85. Idaho 01 (OPEN) (not ranked): Atty. Larry Grant (D) (71/43), Bus. Cecil Kelly (D) (just announced), or Fmr. Army Off. Rand Lewis (D) (just announced) vs. State Rep. Bill Sali (R) (246/134), ID Controller Keith Johnson (75/40), Fmr. State Sen. Sheila Sorensen (R) (137/8), State Sen. Skip Brandt (47/3), Bus. Norm Semanko (101/25), or Canyon Cty. Comm. Robert Vazquez (53/12).
86. Wisconsin 05 (Sensenbrenner) (not ranked): Prof./2004 Nom. Bryan Kennedy (D) (139/73) vs. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R) (392/705).
87. Nebraska 03 (OPEN) (not ranked): Rancher Scott Kleeb (D) (82/56) vs. State Sen. Adrian Smith (R) (210/149) or Grand Island Mayor Jay Vavricek (R) (183/157).