Conservative Rep. Ed Case (D, HI-02) shook up Hawaii politics when he announced he would challenge the more liberal Sen. Akaka (D-HI) in a primary. However, the real shakeup is not in the Senate primary (Akaka will easily crush Case), but in the race to get Case's House seat. Five prominent Democrats are already running, with two more considering. No prominent Republicans have committed yet, but two are considered possibilities. In addition, one potentially strong candidate has yet to declare his party. Here's an early look at the candidates, and the district itself:
First of all, the district:
As you can see, the second district takes up nearly the entire state area-wise. It is often referred to as HI-rural since it takes in all the sparsley populated neighbor islands as well as the parts of Oahu not covered by the other, more densely populated Honolulu-based district. Since HI-02's creation in 1962, it has been held only by Democrats, starting with Spark Matsunaga (1962-1976), Daniel Akaka (1976-1990), Patsy Mink (1990-2002), and Ed Case (2003-present). It is the more Democratic of Hawaii's two districts, and largely responsible for the state remaining so blue. And now for the candidates...
Democrats
Mazie Hirono
Hawaii state House (1980-1994), Lt. Governor (1994-2002), ran for governor and lost to current Gov. Linda Lingle (R) in 2002 by 52-47%. 58 years old. Considered to be a mainstream liberal Democrat, and should start off with strong support within the party machine, although being out of politics for four years may hurt her.
Ron Menor
Hawaii state House (1982-1986), Hawaii state Senate (1986-1990). Ran for open HI-02 in 1990, came in third place. Returned to state House in 1992 and to state Senate in 2000, where he currently serves, representing central Oahu. 50 years old. Primary supporter of Hawaii's unique gas cap law. Prides himself as a "progressive Democrat with a strong consumer record" and attacks "unfunded mandates and the Medicare prescription drug program." He would have voted against the Iraq War Resolution and says "President Bush did not have a clear strategy to win and provide for a safe transition. The whole effort was ill-conceived and poorly thought out. We should have done more on the diplomatic front and imposed stronger sanctions to rein in Saddam's Hussein's regime." Also a strong critic of No Child Left Behind, oil companies, and pharmaceutical companies. Source.
Gary Hooser
Hawaii state Senate (2002-present). Represents Kauai, one of the heavily Democratic outer islands. 52 years old. Describes himself as a "Traditional Democrat" who "cares about the environement, about working people, about maintaining a strong safety net, about seeing that all Americans receive a good education" and believes that "government has an important role to play in balancing some of the inequities in life". However, when it comes to abortion he supports "a woman's right to choose, but I don't support abortion as a birth control measure". He is an outspoken advocate for the homeless. Source.
Brian Schatz
Hawaii state House (1998-present). Represents Eastern Oahu. 33 years old. Describes himself as a strong progressive and points to his young age as a plus. He is the only Democrat who will have to give up his seat to run, as the state Senators are in the middle of four year terms. Strongly opposed to last year's bankruptcy bill (which Rep. Case voted for) and tax cuts aimed at the rich. Also a strong supporter of the environment and political reform.
Colleen Hanabusa
Hawaii state Senate (1998-present). Represents Western Oahu. 54 years old. Unabashedly liberal, she ran for HI-02 when Patsy Mink died in 2002, but came in third place. Has always been against the Iraq War.
The following Democrats are considering a run...
Matt Matsunaga
Hawaii state Senate (1992-2002), Lt. Governor candidate in 2002, ran for HI-02 in 2002 and finished in second place to Ed Case. 47 years old. Considered to be a mainstream liberal Democrat. Supports medical marijuana.
Duke Bainum
Hawaii state House (1990-1994), Honolulu City Council (1994-2002), ran for Honolulu Mayor in 2004 and narrowly lost to Mufi Hanneman. 53 years old. As for what kind of Representative he would make, I have no idea.
Republicans
Mike Gabbard
Honolulu City Council (2002-2004). 57 years old. Challenged Ed Case and lost 63-37% in 2004. Notorious during the 90s for driving the anti-gay movement which culminated in a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. In fact, that's all he ever talks about. If Gabbard takes the GOP nomination again, this seat is safely blue. But you can bet Lingle and her moderate allies in the Hawaii GOP will do all they can to pressure another moderate Republican into the race.
Bob Hogue
Hawaii state Senate (2000-present). Represents Northeastern Oahu. 52 years old. Little information available.
Peter Carlisle
Honolulu Prosecuting Attorney (1996-present). 53 years old. The latest potential candidate, Peter Carlisle has not yet decided on which political party to run as. His office is non-partisan, his politics difficult to discern. However, he recently attended a Republican dinner, and you can bet prominent Republicans will be all over him in the coming weeks, begging him to carry their banner.
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Summary: Just about all of the Democrats running would make fine Representatives, and all are more liberal than Ed Case, member of the Blue Dog Caucus. I'm initially attracted to Schatz because of his youth, progressivism, and actually being willing to give up his state House seat to run. As for the Republican challengers, the only one I'm worried about is the possibility of Peter Carlisle running as one. HI-02 is heavily Democratic, but a moderate GOPer could possibily slip through if there is a divisive Democratic primary, and a weakened candidate emerges. However, given that 2006 is shaping up to be a very bad year for Republicans, it would take a near perfect storm for Carlisle to beat any of the above Democrats. The odds are much better that we will lose Rep. Melancon's, Bean's, Edwards', Marshall's, Strickland's, Sanders', Boswell's and Spratt's seats before this one flips. Still, it would be best if we don't even have to spend any money defending this seat.