As I look at the TX-28 primary results the thing that jumps out at me is Ciro's turnout drops in the non-Bexar counties this year compared to 2004. Drop below the fold for the analysis and why this race has become a case study for the need to fight everywhere.
Here are some comparisons for Ciro (using Kos's number from 2004 and the Sec of State numbers for the counties that have all precincts reporting):
Ciro Rodriguez
County 2004 2006 Vote Change
Atascosa 1,948 901 -1,047
Bexar 10,824 10,622 -202
Comal 664 141 -532
Frio 2,014 958 -1,056
Guadalupe 1,573 927 -646
Hays 725 808 +83
LaSalle 833 325 -508
McMullen 47 52 +5
Wilson 2,534 1,503 -1,031
Ciro's numbers dropped over 1000 votes in each of the south suburbs counties of San Antonio and dropped over 500 votes in the two northeast suburban counties of San Antonio and the middle county of LaSalle.
Cuellar's numbers are pretty stable or showing a slight decrease in the rest of the counties except for two small counties (big increases in McMullen and big decreases in Comal), LaSalle county where turnout for both dropped, and Bexar where strangely Cuellar picked up about 200 votes which have all there precincts reporting:
Henry Cuellar
County 2004 2006 Vote Change
Atascosa 1,146 1,149 +3
Bexar 2,737 2,936 +199
Comal 252 79 -173
Frio 1,720 1,426 -294
Guadalupe 587 553 -34
Hays 400 470 +70
LaSalle 1,112 661 -451
McMullen 71 288 +217
Wilson 1,376 1,198 -178
As we have talked about the TX-28 race for the past couple weeks the focus has been on turnout in San Antonio's Bexar County (and it seemed to me, though those on the ground can correct me, to the exclusion of the smaller counties). If in fact the effort for turnout in the smaller counties was sacificed for a focus on Bexar that looks to be the strategic decision where this race ras lost. The drop in turnout for Ciro in the five suburban counties of San Antonio is enough to have pushed this into a runoff. This race looks like a perfect example of why we need to compete everywhere.