This Wednesday Democratic voters all over the Arizona's 8th Congressional district began to get some very odd 'polling' calls. If the resident identified as undecided, or a supporter of Democratic candidate Patty Weiss, they got 'questions' that strongly pushed negative 'would it make yoy more or less likely to support' statements about Weiss, her personal finances, her campaign contributions, and her family. And then to get strongly positive statements about her major rival for the nomination, Democrat Gabrielle Giffords. Local bloggers and activists soon realized that a fairly substantial push polling effort was underway.
This is what we've learned. Please use this diary to collect additional annectdotal and research information on this is GOP ratfucking campaign
For a considerable period of time, many, including myself, suspected that the Giffords campaign, or some uncoordinated independent expenditure committee supporting her was behind the effort. After all, she seemed the obvious beneficiary.
Those of us who suspected that were completely wrong. Gabby issued a statement demouncing the calls, and researchers working feverishly last night finally put together the breadcrumb trail to reveal the companies and parties involved.
There is good reason to beleieve these push polls were instead paid for by the RNCC through the Terrance Group, who contracted with Western Wats, who in trun contracted with Mountain West Research Center, who in turn contracted with an offshore call center in India (all the call center workers had heavy Indian accents).
This is apparently part of a national effort of push polling across several districts; one other identified so far is the New York 20th District around Albany.
The universe of households called appears massive: far more than is neccessary for legitimate polling. Even if the obvious bias of the 'questions' weren't enough proof of intent, the size of the 'sample' gives away the show. Due to the democraphics of the recipients and the number of reports, yesterday the estimate universe was huge: as much as 20K high-value voters. Today that estimate is closer to 70K, and some suspect that the target is actually the entire 120K universe of Democratic registered voters in the district.
Needless to say, this is a very expensive operation. We believe that payments by the RNCC to the Terrance Group of $391K for polls and travel reported in FEC reports represent at least a portion of the cost of this push polling effort.
Why would the RNCC do this? Well, all the polling conducted in the race so far indicates a comfortable lead among decided Democratic voters for Patty Weiss, and that she beats every Republican candidate in the district in general election match ups. Gabby Giffords, on the other hand, doesn't fare quite as well in general election match ups, being beaten by the big money GOP candidate Steve Huffman, and in a dead heat with the Right Wing Minuteman candidate, Randy Graf, who nearly picked off incumbent (and now retiring) Jim Kolbe. Apparently, the GOP has concluded that Weiss is leading in the primary, and that this is very bad news for them: so they've decided to try help Giffords out in their own ratfucky little way - entirely without her involvement, of course.
UPDATE: The anti-Lamont push polling believed to have been conducted by the RNCC during the Lieberman primary may also have been carried out through the same web of polling companies. Such a pattern, CT-Sen, NY-20, and now AZ-08, may represent a major national strategy of the GOP this season in a fevered bid to retain a Congressional majority and sow dissension within the Democratic party. Certainly, this incident has caused considerable distrust and rancor within the Democratic party here in southern Arizona. May wonder if the party activists can unify behind the Democratic primary winner before the general election.