Mystery Pollster, Mark Blumenthal, adds the CBS/NY Times 37% (+1) to the LA Times 45% (+5) and concludes we're seeing with all comers a 2.6% improvement in dismal (my term) Bush numbers since August. While that's hardly anything to crow about (and the 40% Rasmussen has today suggests the blip is over), MP also mentions the difference in the NY Times narrative
The poll also found that President Bush had not improved his own or his party's standing through his intense campaign of speeches and events surrounding the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The speeches were at the heart of a Republican strategy to thrust national security to the forefront in the fall elections.
and the
LA Times narrative Bush and GOP making gains among voters
which is why the polls matter. Bush may not be on the ballot but as
Stu Rothenberg points out,
[B]eware of all national surges. And remember: Journalists always want a horse race, not a blowout.
That ranks right up there with Charlie Cook's "this cake is baked". ;-) In any case, look for natural tightening to be described as something other than it is, and keep a skeptical eye on individual polls until October. More Rothenberg advice:
Early polls showed independent voters so disproportionately Democratic that it's likely some of them, who usually vote Republican, will slide back into the GOP column. And some Republican and conservative voters remain undecided, as in the Tennessee Senate race I wrote about recently. Certainly some of those voters are likely to rally behind Republican candidates as Election Day nears and the prospects of dramatic Democratic gains seem more real.
No, I don't really expect most in the national media or the blogs to heed these warnings. Overreaction is a way of life for many of them. But now is exactly the time to be cautious about rumors and news. It's better to get it right than to get it first.
Well, this blog heard you. As to whether we all heed it, that's another story.