CNN/USA today/Gallup released a poll today, and the news isn't great for the good guys. A majority of respondents want Alito confirmed, while a plurality sees a filibuster as unwarranted.
Grim news on the flip...
According to the poll, 54% of Americans want Alito confirmed, with 30% opposed to confirmation. In addition,
Of those surveyed, 48 percent said a Democratic filibuster of the nominee would not be justified, while 38 percent said it would be. Another 15 percent said they were not sure whether a filibuster -- the use of extended debate to block a Senate vote on the nominee -- would be justified.
These numbers come in spite of strong support for Roe v. Wade, with 66% believing Roe should stand, and only 25% believing it should be overturned. Why such strong support for both Alito and Roe? The majority of respondents do not believe Alito would vote to overturn Roe.
Only 34 percent of those surveyed said they believe Alito would vote to reverse Roe, while 44 percent said they think he would not. Another 21 percent said they were not sure.
Sample size was 1,006 respondents, with a MoE of 3%.
So, what does this mean for Democratic efforts to oppose Alito? Well, I think the case for a filibuster just got a little bit tougher. I think there is a pretty good chance that Alito would vote to overturn Roe, but if Americans don't believe that to be the case, than one of the major underpinnings of a potential filibuster goes out the window. There are still arguments about executive authority, Concerned Alumni of Princeton, and the idea that a Party under investigation for widespread corruption shouldn't get to name ANYONE to the Court, but I wonder about the ability of those issues to resonate with the public enough to swing support in favor of a filibuster.
It also firms up my belief that if Dems do choose to filibuster, they better be sure that the Republicans don't have the votes to go nuclear. A major part of winning the Nuclear battle is winning the media war, and convincing voters that suspension of Unanimous Consent Agreements or other procedural tactics are warranted. That case seemed tough enough as it was, with earlier polls showing that no one was paying a bit of attention to the Nuclear battle. If Americans think that Dems tried to hold up a nominee who should be confirmed, I'm not sure we can win it. And Newt Gingrich can tell everyone what happens when you are percieved to be unjustly obstructing the business of the Nation.
So, what do Democrats do now? And what will the Republican signatories to the Gang of 14 deal do if Democrats decide to go through with a filibuster? Thoughts?