Jim VandeHei and Chris Cillizza, two political writers at the Washington Post, report that Republican officials are bracing for a House loss of between 7 and 30 Republican seats. That's bad news for them, good news for us. Read on.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
They are all but writing off GOP open seats in Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Florida (the one previously held by Foley). Party officials said that three GOP incumbents in Indiana are trailing in private polling and that seats thought safe suddenly appear imperiled. These include the open Florida seat vacated by Rep. Katherine Harris, who is running for senator. "It is unquestionably closer than we would like," said Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Fla.).
Why are they doing so poorly? No suprise, but it's because of Iraq and Foley. Conservatives are frustrated with the GOP and are not enegized to vote (or may vote Democrat) and Independents are swinging largely over the Democrat's side.
How are the GOP trying to handle the Foley scandal?
As part of that strategy, the Republican National Committee is seeking to convince conservatives that the debate is fundamentally centered on politics, not values. The RNC is shipping reams of information to conservative radio hosts, television commentators and bloggers. Those GOP talking points detail the Democratic connections of groups including the Center for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington and American Family Voices, which are working to turn the scandal into an issue with national implications.
The article points out that Thomas Reynolds (R-NY) is trailing his challenger, Jack Davis. Deborah Pryce (R-OH)and the 4th ranking GOP leader in the House is also in jeopardy of losing her seat now.
The Abramhoff scandal is also having an impact in Ohio where Joy Padgett is fighting Zach Space for Bob Ney's open seat. Republicans here agree that their candidate, Padgett, is behind Space. Space is also making Foley an issue by calling on Padgett to ask for Hastert's resignation.
Despite the good news for Democrats, the article cautions us that Democratic gains may not be as extensive as one might hope.
A Democratic takeover of the House is not a foregone conclusion, however. Because of congressional redistricting plans that gave huge advantages to incumbents, fewer than 50 of the 435 House seats are competitive. Democrats said internal polls show that the fallout from the Foley scandal is confined to half a dozen races. Moreover, House elections are traditionally shaped by local issues and personalities, and the closest races come down to which party can turn out its most loyal voters.
Wouldn't it be amazing to wakeup and see the Democrats won 30 seats in the House? I'm conjecturing a 24-27 seat gain based on a dream I had (hey, it matches up with a lot of expert opinion, so I'm running with it!). At any rate, a 30 seat pickup would equal a 30 seat advantage over the Republicans. That would completely invert the balance of power in the House where Republicans hold a 230-201 majority.