On this Thursday, the flood of polls has come. Most of the credit for that goes to the good folks at RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics, whose MajorityWatch series gives us new polls in a whopping
32 House districts. In the name of getting off the computer before 3 AM, I will let Kos' front page summary of the MW polls suffice.
In addition, we have new numbers in 15 additional seats. Also, Rasmussen tracking now has Bush at 44%. There are also two national polls today, which show Bush job approval at 40% (Fox) and 41% (Cook/RT). Among likely voters, they have the Democrats leading the generic ballot by nine (Fox; 50-41) and eleven (Cook/RT; 51-40) points, respectively.
Follow me after the jump for the individual numbers.
IL-06: Duckworth (D) 51%, Roskam (R) 45% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the DCCC. As an attempt to no doubt continue Democratic momentum stories in the press, the DCCC had a minor poll dump today, with about a half-dozen polls. This is one of the first to show a significant lead for Tammy Duckworth.
KS-02: Rep. Ryun (R) 43%, Boyda (D) 40% [Neutral]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken by Cooper and Secrest for the DCCC. It does confirm, however, that this race is a good deal closer than can be considered comfortable for either the Ryun campaign or the NRCC.
MO-SEN: McCaskill (D) 51%, Sen. Talent (R) 42% [Dems]
The internals of this SurveyUSA poll strike me as a tad optimistic for Dems (43-37 over self-identified R's), but even with a dead-even sample, McCaskill leads here. Is this a post-debate high??
NJ-SEN: (2 polls) Sen. Menendez (D) 46.5%, Kean (R) 42.5% [Neutral]
Two new independent polls, by Rasmussen and Quinnipiac, confirm that Menendez has regained the edge in this US Senate contest, the only Democratic-held tossup in America. Both of these polls gave Tom Kean Jr the lead in their previous surveys.
OH-GOV: Strickland (D) 60%, Blackwell (R) 32% [Dems]
This SurveyUSA poll seems a bit too good to be true, and I must admit: the internals have me a bit skeptical. I am not sure that I am buying a 43 Dem-37 Rep sample. However, even if you reversed those numbers, Strickland is still leading by 20. This is becoming quite the little asskicking. Key stat: Strickland is actually winning 28% of the Republican vote.
OH-SEN: Brown (D) 54%, Sen. DeWine (R) 40% [Dems]
Also from SUSA, and also to be taken with a little grain of salt. Again, however, even if you skewed the sample six points in the GOP's direction, Brown still has a lead. One reason: twice as many Republicans are defecting to Brown as Democrats are defecting to DeWine. The Democratic base is unusually unified, while the GOP base is weaker. A rarity--but a pretty common theme in a lot of the polls we are seeing.
OH-18: Space (D) 48%, Padgett (R) 41% [Neutral]
CAVEAT--This is another DCCC poll, also by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. Interestingly, today's independent poll from Majority Watch had a wider spread in this contest. Even Padgett's internals a week or so ago had her trailing in this race. This is no longer a toss-up, although it is close enough that Space still could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
OK-05: Fallin (R) 62%, Hunter (D) 33% [Neutral]
Perhaps a bit disappointing for the Democrats, who might have thought they could be more competitive in this open seat. This SurveyUSA poll gives Fallin a wide lead here. Fallin appears likely to easily claim this seat, with a margin only slightly reduced from the margins that former Rep. Ernest Istook was accustomed to.
OR-05: Rep. Hooley (D) 44%, Erickson (R) 36% [Neutral]
CAVEAT--This is a poll for the Erickson campaign, taken by Moore Information (great name, BTW). This actually shows some slippage for Erickson, who trailed by seven in his last internal polling. However, he has spent freely (over $1 million), and Hooley has never had a stranglehold on her district. This is still one to watch.
PA-10: Carney (D) 51%, Rep. Sherwood (R) 37% [Dems]
CAVEAT--Yet another DCCC poll, this one by Bennett Pitts Blumenthal. Nobody at this point is doubting that Carney is leading this race...the only question, at this point, is margin. This could be tangential Foley damage, as bringing personal ethics back into the equation dings Sherwood, due to his much publicized run-in with a mistress.
PA-12: Rep. Murtha (D) 57%, Irey (R) 30% [Dems]
This is the first public poll in the race, and represents a marked contrast from a September GOP internal poll which claimed this was only a ten-point race. This poll, commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, has Murtha up easily. Not surprisingly, the Irey campaign says that they have more faith in their own internal polling. I guess that is what I would say, too, if public polls showed my candidate getting blasted by 27.
SC-05: Rep. Spratt (D) 56%, Norman (R) 42% [Neutral]
This poll, by SurveyUSA, is bad news for the GOP. This was one of their targeted races, and it was one of their prized recruits. It is little wonder they began to scale back their financial commitment to this race yesterday, all but conceding defeat in this Bush-leaning district.
TN-SEN: Ford (D) 48%, Corker (R) 46% [Neutral]
Starting to worry about this race. Even though Rasmussen continues to have a Ford lead here, the Corker implosion (or the Ford momentum, if you prefer) has clearly stalled out a bit. This is now looking to replace Missouri as the "stay up all night" toss-up contest.
TX-17: Rep. Edwards (D) 54%, Taylor (R) 38% [Dems]
CAVEAT--Another DCCC poll, this one by Bennett Pitts Blumenthal. Hate to sound like a broken record (actually, I don't!!), but here is another race where the NRCC thought they had a top-tier recruit, and he is dragging. The independent Majority Watch series confirmed almost identical numbers here. Edwards is in considerably better shape than nearly everyone (myself included) thought.
VT-01: Welch (D) 52%, Rainville (R) 41% [Dems]
CAVEAT--Er...DCCC poll...Greenberg, et al. Please see TX-17, SC-05...Another first round draft pick down double digits. Not good news for Carl Forti and the kids over at the NRCC.
So...today was nothing short of a polling buffet. Remember to check the front page for all the home-baked goodness courtesy of Majority Watch, and remember to come back tomorrow for the Friday edition of FTP. I have a funny feeling that the numbers are only going to accelerate now that we have less than four weeks to the big dance.
Have a happy Thursday, and as always, rec it if you liked it!!