A few days ago I wrote about some of the reasons why Lew Katz can win the OH-14 congressional race.
Today I wanted to include some numbers about the district that while daunting, do offer a little hope as to why Katz can win. While there aren't any polls being done here, voting history indicates there is a chance of an upset.
OH-14 by the numbers
2002 -- Rep. Steve LaTourette (R) vs. Dale Blanchard (D)
Total Money Raised
LaTourette $557,106
Blanchard no report, spent less than $5,000
Election
LaTourette 132,677 (72%)
Blanchard 51,087 (28%)
Dale Blanchard is a candidate that runs every two years. In 2002 he had no primary opposition, but he didn't run any type of campaign -- and it showed. LaTourette swept all seven counties by wide margins. The closest was Ashtabula County, where LaTourette "only" got 65% of the vote.
2004 -- Rep. Steve LaTourette (R) vs. Capri Cafaro (D)
Total Money Raised
LaTourette $2,047,534
Capri Cafaro $1,993,278
Election
LaTourette 201,652 (62%)
Cafaro 119,714 (37%)
Bush 52%
Kerry 47%
This election was completely different. Cafaro, a millionaire heiress, self-financed her campaign and forced LaTourette to raise and spend lots of money. In the end, the result was still a LaTourette blowout. He swept all seven counties, with Ashtabula being the closest. The vote totals were closer than 2002, and if Cafaro didn't have ties to Traficant and came across as a little more professional, she might have made it over the top. And the important numbers are the Bush/Kerry numbers, whcih show us this district is more purple than red.
2006 -- Rep. Steve LaTourette (R) vs. Lewis Katz (D)
Total Money Raised (Cash on Hand) as of 9/30
Katz $179,971 ($50,638)
LaTourette $1,478,341 ($579,638)
Katz is running radio and newspaper ads, plus he's campaigning hard across the district.
LaTourette is running a few TV ads and doing little else.
Primary election numbers in May
Number of Democratic ballots cast (3 candidates) - 35,817 (48.7%)
Number of Republican ballots cast (1 candidate) - 37,715 (51.3%)
Conclusions
1. The reason people do not see this race as viable can be seen in the numbers: LaTourette has more money and has won convincingly the last two cycles.
2. However, this district is not as red as it appears -- Bush only got 52% of the vote here.
3. Katz is a far better candidate than Capri Cafaro was in 2004.
4. The May primary suggests the number of hard-core Republican and Democratic voters is close, and the independents might decide this race.
5. Given the current state of affairs with Iraq and the low opinion polls of Congress and Bush, there is reason for optimism here.
Recent diaries on the OH-14 race:
OH-14: LaTourette Next Big Scandal? Research Needed!
OH-14: Why Katz (D) can win
OH-14: LaTourette (R) admits he's not doing his job