On Sunday's Meet the Press, Sen. Richard Lugar pointed out what the likely end result of the Iraqi elections will bring:
I would just say, however, at the end of the day, the results of this election, the results of the constitution, the compromises that are made, may be very unsettling for many Americans who had anticipated democracy more of a Jeffersonian-Madison variety and are going to find an Iraqi form of democracy that has a heavy religious overload to it and a number of people not interested in so many checks and balances and human rights.
Who would be this
number of people?
From the CS Monitor:
MSNBC reported that the strongest campaign alliance, or group of parties operating as a bloc, is headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Muhsin al-Hakim who was the worldwide spiritual leader of Shiites from 1955-1970.
...
Hakim, the head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, spent 25 years in exile in Iran and actually founded the group that he heads there. Hakim has the blessing of arguably the most influential figure in Iraq, the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. MSNBC reported that Hakim is expected to do very well among the dominant Shiite majority, particularly in the south of the country.
Despite this Iran connection, Thomas Friedman thinks the risk is mitigated by the ethnic difference between Iraqi Arab Shiites and Iranian Persian Shiites:
Iran is next door, and it has myriad economic and cultural links with Iraqi Shiites. Moreover, while the Iraqi Shiites are certain to emerge with the most seats in the new Iraqi parliament, and while some are pro-Iranian, the majority of Iraqi Shiites have no intention of being ruled from Tehran. The Iraqi Shiites are Arabs, not Persians, and they are aware of their Arabness. Any Iraqi leader who is depicted or presents himself as the cat's-paw of Tehran will face a backlash.
Is Friedman still trying to salvage a reputation wounded by his loud support for Bush' adventure?
Given the implausibility of imposing its preferred outcome--presumably the election of Alawi and his "list"--without escalating the insurrection, the Bush administration will have to live with an outcome, a strong warm relationship between Iran and Iraq, with serious consequences not favorable NeoCon visions of a transformed Mideast.