The folks at CQ
finally notice that Scott Kleeb has a chance.
In Nebraska, Democrats Have a Small Chance at a Huge Upset
By Nathan Levinson | 7:50 PM; Oct. 18, 2006 | Email This Article
The idea of a Democratic House contender running a competitive race in Nebraska's 3rd District -- and even having at least a slim hope of an upset -- would seem far-fetched. The sprawling and mainly rural district gave President Bush 75 percent of its vote in 2004. Republican incumbent Tom Osborne easily won three terms, running without a Democratic challenger in 2002 and taking 87 percent to defeat Democrat Donna J. Anderson.
But Osborne's decision to run this year for governor -- he lost in the May primary -- left the seat open, and the Democrats' recruitment of a politically inexperienced but unusually dynamic candidate in rancher Scott Kleeb has left the election of Republican state Sen. Adrian Smith as something less than a fait accompli. CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.
The background, most of which we know:
Kleeb's profile got a boost on Oct. 15 when he was endorsed by the Omaha World Herald, the most-read newspaper in Nebraska (though Omaha is not in the 3rd District). The editorial describes Kleeb, a graduate of Yale University, as a mix between a cowboy and scholar. The paper also cited Kleeb's efforts to cultivate an image as a centrist Democrat who is willing to work across party lines, saying he should "provide a lesson to the left-leaning activists who hold such sway in his party."
University of Nebraska-Kearney political science professor Diane Duffin said, "The race is definitely closing in." Kleeb -- following the path trod by most Democrats who achieve success in the Republican stronghold of Nebraska -- "is stressing independence in a big way," said Duffin.
That is helping him reach out to some voters who regularly vote Republican but have been turned off to Smith since the fiercely contested Republican primary.
The hard feelings seem most heavily concentrated among supporters of former Osborne aide John Hanson, the primary runner-up. Duffin said, "This year is the first year I have seen Republicans mad at each other and not resolving it after the primary."
Kleeb is hoping to entice Hanson supporters by highlighting the similarities between the two men, most notably their strong backgrounds in agriculture.
The most divisive issue for Republicans appears to be Smith's ties to the Club for Growth. Smith was endorsed by the Club in the primary and the group's advocacy on his behalf has helped him raise more than $350,000 of a total $1 million in campaign receipts.
As part of its "small government" agenda, Club for Growth officials have stated their skepticism of farm subsidies and even the existence of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, controversial positions in the heavily agricultural 3rd. "The more people learn about the Club for Growth, they ask the simple question: How can Adrian support them?" Kleeb says.
It took them a while to realize, especially since this race has been on the DCCC's (not to mention the Netroots) radar for a while, and internal polls suggested the race was a lot closer than "safe Republican." People in Nebraska don't like out-of-state money coming in and trying to screw them over. It's why Initiative 423 (TABOR) is going to fail badly, it's why the Club for Growth-backed Smith is going to lose to the independent-minded Kleeb in November.
I'm going to try and help out in the 3rd District as we get closer to November. If you can't volunteer, go contribute to the campaign. Time is running out, and we can really win this one!