With predictable dinosaur lag, CNN has awakened to the disturbing phenomenon of increasing Iraqi sniper activity against US occupation troops. What makes this development unusual is the insurgent's recording of grim videos documenting the attacks. This magnifies the power of the insurgent snipers enormously, because for every soldier killed or wounded by the snipers, thousands of soldiers will likely be exposed to the demoralizing videos.
We are entering uncharted territory as the combination of global Internet connectivity and insurgency creates potent challenges to the command-and-control tactics of the Iraq occupation. Here are some likely consequences.
1. The Bush administration will probably attempt to suppress these videos through some Commander-in-Chief, time of war, mumbo-jumbo. That will put a finger in the public relations dike, but the Internet has too many avenues of video distribution to plug them all.
2. The aggressive patrolling posture of US forces will come to an end as sniper teams proliferate and movement of US troops outside fortified bases puts them in a shooting gallery. Armored vehicles are no protection against snipers, who simply wait for mounted troops to come into view.
3. With US troops hunkering down in bases again, the security of the road network will deteriorate, seriously threatening the viability of the occupation.
4. Mortar and rocket attacks against US bases will worsen, as guerrillas operate with greater freedom from US patrols.
5. Recruiting of US military forces will decline futher, as only the most desperate individuals are willing to face the risk of sudden death from a sniper shot.
It all adds up to an acceleration of the end game for the US occupation. Sniper rifles and video cameras are cheap and plentiful. There is no counter to this video/sniping tactic. The end of the US occupation will probably come within 18 months.