I've been thinking about this a lot since the debacle in Iowa. Dean may still win, but in the long run, it doesn't really matter if he does or not.
About Iowa: So much ink has been spilled about this it boggles the mind. The problem was not one single thing. We had a campaign manager in Iowa who would make a good Polk County Democratic Chair, but wasn't really ready to run a campaign. We had Joe Trippi building a machine he didn't know how to drive. We had too many out-of-staters knocking on too many doors too many times. Finally, we had too much anti-Dean media, attack ads, Gephardt attacks (and Dean taking the bait), one oppo "surprise" after another for month after month, culminating in the negative media orgy the two weeks before Iowa.
So we lost. And the scream happened, the world discovered the real power of the media, and here we are today.
Dean still has a path to the nomination, which ceased to include the 2/3 states about halfway through "YEEARRGHH!" He needs Kerry to show cracks in the facade today. This is beginning, as the truth about John Kerry is starting to be discussed - his lack of political courage, poor voting record, special interest money...blah, blah, blah. He needs to win Washington and/or Michigan on 2/7. Win two or three states in two days, and everything changes (For precedence, see Kerry, IA/NH/Polls). Everything changes, and we have ourselves a two-man, verrrry interesting race that goes into Super Tuesday. It's a rough road, but could conceivably be done.
But forget all that. The truth is, we've set the table for something larger. Dean set the tone for this campaign season. He chose the message, chose the style, and every other candidate followed. Thousands upon thousands of new voters have been pulled into the process. There would be less voters to dive over to Kerry and Edwards in a confused, bandwagon frenzy these last two weeks without all the new voters brought in by Dean. Yet, he hasn't turned all this into victory. Sound familiar? Sound kinda like McGovern? Nah....think Goldwater.
Goldwater ran in 1964, and despite getting his ass kicked by LBJ, changed the Republican party in a way that we are still feeling today. George Bush is Goldwater's bastard offspring, and he's crashing the family sedan trying to show off for all his friends. We will take advantage of his fatal mistakes. Whether in 2004 or 2008, no matter - it'll happen.
We have made a similar change in the Democratic party, and whether Dean wins or loses in 2004 is irrelevant at this point. The real effects of it won't be felt until 2008 or even 2012.
There are many experienced people in Dean's camp, but many more of the influentials are new to politics. I am one example - a shy person, with no connections and no idea how politics works, I'm now a Meetup host, public speaker, and relatively well-connected. My story has been told thousands of times across the country in people who found their voice, and their calling, in the Dean campaign.
We have a small army of young leaders who have seen how to build and run a campaign - including examples of what NOT to do - and learned how to deal with the dirty shit that comes upon you in a campaign. We will spend the next 4-8 years guiding city council campaigns, running for office, becoming district and county and state chairs for the party. We will do this with a set of ideals in mind that we're not abandoning, no matter what happens with Dean.
And in 2008 and 2012, when we begin again selecting our President, Senators, Congressmen, Governors, the folks pounding us at the ground level today will just be old folks attending the party meetings we lead. Elected officials will be Dean alumna, or will have had Dean alumna running their campaigns. Favors will be due, and we will be experienced.
The change will come; we've already created the path leading us to majority status. The first Dean presidency may not include a President Dean, but the effects will be far-reaching and long-lasting.
Sorry for the length, everyone - I've been wanting to get all this out for a while, and once I started writing, it was hard to stop!