A new winning formula for Ned (72% Dem, 40% Ind, 8% Rep) and a few thoughts based on the
ARG Poll that came out last night. That poll has the race pegged at
CT-Sen--ARG: Lieberman 49 Lamont 37 Schlesinger 8 (my suspicion is that these numbers are quite accurate in telling us where the race is, but folks with access to internal polls would know better about this).
The good news in this poll is that
Lobby-me Lieberman is below 50%.
He can be beaten as follows.
Affiliation (share): Ned// Lobby-me// Others// Undecided
Republicans(28%): 8%/ 66%/ 23%/ 3%
Democrats(39%): 62%/ 34%/ 0%/ 4%
Unaffiliated(33%): 33%/ 53%/ 8%// 6%
First observation is that the poll is showing a larger share of Democrats and Republicans (about 6% each increase) than it did in August, and hence lower unaffiliated voters (down from 44% t 33%). Not sure if the internal polls are showing this shift, but it does indicate that quite a bit of voter registration effort is underway. Democrats should continue working on that front in the interests of CT-Sen as well as other races.
Then, by flipping over 10 pts among dems and 7 points among independents from Lobby-me to his side, Ned'll be at: 43.5% Ned, 43% Lobby-me. Hence (72% Dem, 40% Ind, 8% Rep) is a barely winning formula for Ned. I think it's doable, and with solid ground game, he can seal the victory.
Another formula with a similar result is: (78% Dem, 33% Ind, 8% Rep), but I think flipping 16 points among Dems may not be that easy at this stage (but it isn't impossible). One final formula involves flipping 18 points among independents, namely (62% Dem, 51% Ins, 8% Rep), which also gives the 43.5 Ned, 43 Lobby-me margin, which I think is quite hard to do in the remaining time.
Essentially, the first formula is the one that may work best.
My prescription: shoot for flipping 10% among Dems and 8% among Indies and getting to (72% Dem, 40% Ind, 8% Rep) or better Assuming the GOP breakdown stays roughly the same (which it may or may not, as Schlesinger is a bit of an unknown variable here, but his increased visibility will help Ned based on the shifts in the ARG poll), Ned can win!
In other words, a message that resonates well with Dems and Inds simultaneously is the way to go (i.e. forget the Reps; that block is neither too predictable nor too winnable at this point, so we assume the worst there and focus on where we can shape the outcome better in short order).
What message will resonate well with Dems+Inds? It's still the war (iraq, Joe's leading role in getting us there, and future wars that Joe is on record as being very enthusiastic about), but that issue should be properly tied in the same breath to the severely adverse effects it continues to have back home.
Ned also needs to define himself well in the minds of the general electorate (time is running out for this, but it can still be done) instead of letting Lobby-me Lieberman define him with negative and false propaganda.
Bottom line for the progressive movement: this race is still a must win for us because it isn't just about helping Democrats win, but it's also about making their legislative leanings more progressive, and that hinges on us succeeding in this race.