In recent diaries concerning possible problems with the upcoming elections, some of the comments have suggested that we should be doing scenario planning. This is suggested as a possible scenario for a nasty October surprise. London Yank
link has been documenting the build up of naval assets off the coast of Iran. These seem to have become considerable. Others that I don't remember have speculated that the end of the month will be the perfect dark sky for launching an attack.
There has been a great deal of speculation around this issue already with a number of posters giving some very good rationale for why this won't happen. I propose a scenario for how it may happen in a manner that will kill several birds for the Cheney Administration at the same time.
It is no secret that Israel's foray into Lebanon was coordinated to some extent with the cabal in Washington. It is also known that it might be some part of a practice exercise (gone bad some of us would argue).
What if part of the plan is for Israel to start the bombing raid against Iran. Maybe with some US provided nuclear devices-maybe not. When Iran responds to Israel's attack then treaties we have in place will leave the administration no choice but to defend Israel and follow up with our own intense bombing campaign. No need to gin up the rhetoric or get an authorization signed since it's an emergency, and hey, Congress isn't in session.
A week before the election will the Democrats be able to come out against such a reprisal? How can the country object to our defending our friend in the middle east? Won't there be a rally around the flag bounce for Republican candidates? Will this scenario take Iraq out of the news-at least temporarily? Yes, there'll be some grumbling about it being planned, but how can the Cheney administration be blamed for events that were initiated by other countries?
So there you go, the best of Repubican, Neocon worlds. They get to kill large numbers of brown people with all their great weapons. They get to be back in charge of events at least for a few days, until Iran begins to hammer our ass and sinks a couple of ships in the Straits of Hormuz. They may get just enough of a bounce before election day to hold on to the house and senate. And they probably can avoid taking responsibility for their plans and actions. Total winner.
OK, Kossaks, why won't this happen?