Now I analyze Maryland's races. At the outset I have posted previous threads that focus on the Governor's race and that include hardcore numbers between 1994 and now:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
These numbers listed in the link above show the baseline of what a Democrat must do to win in MD, using the 1994 narrow win of Parris Glendening as a baseline.
More beneath the fold
In my honset opinion, at this point, I am going to state that I predict that Cardin will win the Senate race. The problem with Steele is that, unlike Ehrlich, he is trying to go after black voters to win. Ehrlich seems to be going after the white, blue collar Reagan Democrat in places like Essex, Dundalk, and other working class parts of the Baltimore suburbs.
What could be really damaging to Steele is his endorsement by Mike Tyson and Don Kirk. For Reagan Democrats in the Baltimore suburbs those endorsements might as well come from Willie Horton. I don't think that white Reagan Democrats in places like Essex, Dundalk, and other blue collar parts of the Baltimore suburbs will take kindly to a candidate who has received the endorsement of Mike Tyson and Don King.
Thus, because Cardin represents the Baltimore area, I don't think that Steele is going to receive the margins needed in places like Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties--60% in both--to defeat Cardin. Honestly I haven't seen any reason that Steele has conclusively given for those voters to not support Cardin.
I am somewhat concerned about Steele's chances in P.G. County. While I honestly believe that the vast majority of blacks there will vote for Cardin, in my worst nightmare scenarios, I could see Steele faring well enough there to create some problems for Cardin. That being said, however, I think that Cardin can make up the difference in Baltimore and its suburbs. I don't think tha Steele can poll enough black votes there to make a difference. I think that Cardin will dominate Montgomery, especially because he is Jewish. Jewish voters will not back Steele, mainly because of his stem cell comment.
Even if Steele were to poll more than 22% that Ehrlich got in the county in 2002, if he were to poll 40%, I did a quick calculation. That would only give him 30,000 more votes. Unless he had a very strong ballot box lead out of Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties, coupled with better support in Baltimore City, I don't think that the voters there. I'll put it this way: If Cardin wins or runs even with Steele in Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties, no matter what happens elsewhere, I think that he wins. It may be a little close, but I think that Cardin wins.
The key voters that both Steele and Ehrlich are targetting are different. Ehrlich is trying to peel off the votes of white blue collar Reagan Democrats in the Baltimore suburbs. They are econmically liberal, but also socially conservative. They are not really enthused by Democratic Party positions that they may perceive as being "soft on crime" or being adamntantly in favor of "gay marriage". They are the ones who might be swayed by Ehrlich's ads about Baltimore City's crime problem. They are leery of Baltimore City and its issues with crime.
Steele's targetted voter are blacks in PG County. He is trying to get the voters of those who are disaffected because MFume and Stu Simms didn't win their primaries. These may be educated blacks who may be willing to consider the GOP due to religious issues--blacks are more religious than white liberals--or due to the "taken for granted" meme that he tried to push. I don't think Steele gets enough of those voters.
The Governor's race is what I address next. The link at the top of the post shows the raw breakdown in terms of votes. However, I'll post that message here for the rest of you to read:
Here is what I have posted in the past about the last three Governor's races:
MD politics divides along the following lines: The Democratic base is Baltimore City, Montgomery, and PG counties. The Republican base are the Baltimore/Washington exurbs, the Western Panhandle, Southern Maryland, and the Eastern Shore.
The battleground basically falls down to these four counties surrounding Baltimore: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard. Beneath the fold I analyze their role in the 1994, 1998, and the 2002 elections.
It is insightful to compare how Glendening fared in 1994 1998 to KKT's miserable showing in 2002.
Here are the exact numbers from 1994 through 2002:
Statewide 1994
Glendening (D): 708,094
Sauerbrey (R): 702,101
Anne Arundel County:
Anne Arundel
Glendening: 54,920
Sauerbrey: 83,663
Baltimore County:
Glendening: 102,398
Sauerbrey: 134,663
Baltimore City:
Glendening: 114,022
Sauerbrey: 38,420
Harford County:
Glendening: 22,884
Sauerbrey: 42,124
Howard County:
Glendening: 34,198
Sauerbrey: 39,466
So out of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard Counties, Sauerbrey had a lead of 85,516 votes. When you add in Glendening's Baltimore City's margin of 75,062, her lead out of the entire Baltimore area was 9,914 votes. When the DC suburbs reported, her lead wasn't strong enough to win. Glendening just barely had enough votes to win.
Statewide 1998:
Parris Glendening (D) 846,972 55.14%
Ellen Sauerbrey (R) 688,357 44.82%
In 1998 Sauerbrey carried the Baltimore suburbs, but still lost.
Here is how it broke down:
Anne Arundel County:
Sauerbrey 87,216 56.6%
Glendening 66,428 43.1%
Baltimore City:
Glendening 125,686 80.6%
Sauerbrey 30,140 19.3%
Baltimore County:
Sauerbrey 122,140 50.7%
Glendeing 118,832 49.3%
Harford County:
Sauerbrey 44,300 60.9%
Glendening 28,428 39.1%
Howard County:
Glendening 44,378 53.3%
Sauerbrey 38,855 46.7%
Between 1998 and 1994, it is clear that Glendening improved significantly by winning Howard county and losing Baltimore County by only 4,000 votes in 1998. He made progress from his 1994 showing.
So, in the 1998 election, Glending basically ran even with Sauerbrey in Baltimore County. He was able to get 43.1% in Anne Arundel County. He carried Howard with 53% of the vote, but lost Harford County by 20% roughly.
However, out of the Baltimore suburbs, Sauerbrey won Baltimore County around 4,000 votes and Anne Arundel County by 21,000 votes. Her Harford County margin was 16,000 votes. Altogether, out of those three counties, she managed a 41,000 margin. As Glendening carried Howard County by 6,000 votes and Baltimore City by 95,000 votes, he ended up with a 111,000 votes. When you subtract Sauebrey's totals from Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Howard counties, Glendening had a ballot box lead in the area of 70,000 votes. When these votes were connected to Montgomery and PG Counties, he had an insurmountable lead.
Now let's contrast to the 2002 election:
Statewide 2002:
Robert Ehrlich Jr. (R) 879,592 51.55%
KKT (D) 813,422 47.68%
Anne Arundel County:
Ehrlich 113,968 64.7%
Townsend 60,753 34.5%
Baltimore City:
Townsend 120,070 75.0%
Ehrlich 38,838 24.3%
Baltimore County:
Ehrlich 170,920 61.2%
Townsend 106,195 38.2%
Harford County:
Ehrlich 63,553 74.3%
Townsend 21,246 24.8%
Howard County:
Ehrlich 53,260 55.2%
Townsend 42,438 44.0%
In the 2002 election, when the returns came in, Ehrlich won by roughly 66,000 votes. And the numbers were brutal in the Balitmore suburbs. Whereas Glendening came within 4,000 votes of winning Baltimore County, KKT was 64,000 votes short. She ran behind Glendening's 1994 numbers there. Thus, between the 1998 and 2002 election, she lost ground by 60,000 votes In Anne Arundel County the margin was around 53,000 votes. Out of those two counties alone, Ehrlich's margin was 117,000 votes. When you add in Harford and Howard counties, Ehrlich's margin over KKT was roughly a combined total of 53,000 votes. So out of the Baltimore suburbs, Ehrlich prevailed by roughly 170,000 votes. KKT won Baltimore city by 82,000 votes, less than Glendening by 8,000 votes. So, in the entire Baltimore metroplitan region, Ehrlich had a lead of roughly 88,000 votes.
So, in eseence, KKT blew the race in suburban Baltimore. She ran behind Glendening in Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard counties. Ehrlich also did a better job of getting out his base than KKT did, for KKT even ran behind Glendening in Baltimore City.
For O'Malley to win he is going to have to pick up a lot more votes in Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties. If he can cut Ehrlich's 2002 margin in half there, he can win this election.
Based on these three election the baseline for the very narrowest of Democratic wins is Glendening's 1994 numbers. O'Malley cannot lose the four Baltimore suburban counties by more than around 85,000 votes. Glendening 1994's performance was the median between KKT's 2002 numbers and his 1998 number