The good people at the
Center for Rural Strategies have released a new poll that suggests a longtime stronghold for the Republicans has shifted dramatically in favor of the Democrats:
The rural vote has shifted in favor of Democratic congressional candidates in the last month, indicating Republicans are losing ground with a key constituency, according to the Center for Rural Strategies Poll.
The poll of rural voters in 41 contested congressional districts found that likely voters preferred Democratic candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives by a margin of 13 points, 52 percent to 39 percent. In mid-September, the same population of voters was evenly split between the two parties at 45 percent each.
The margin is not as pronounced when it comes to Senate races, but is still significant:
In contested Senate races in states with significant rural populations, rural voters preferred Democrats by 4 points, 47 to 43 percent, reversing the 4-point lead Republican Senate candidates held among rural voters in mid-September. But those results fall within the poll's margin of error.
The war in Iraq was the top issue on voters' minds, cited by 38 percent of the respondents. Concern about the war has risen significantly since mid-September, when 28 percent of rural voters cited it as a top issue.
Jobs and the economy were cited as a top issue by 25 percent of the people polled.
Concern about terrorism and national security declined in the past month. That issue was cited by 21 percent of the respondents, down from 26 percent in September.
Interestingly, the Foley scandal did not seem to weigh heavily on the minds of respondents; the implications about "values voting" is particularly interesting:
Three-quarters of respondents said the congressional page scandal involving former Representative Mark Foley was not a major factor in their votes. More than half said it didn't matter which party's candidate they voted for when it came to moral issues.