There is a perception out there that the timing of the verdict in the Saddam Hussein trial will be right before the election to create a news story that will be favorable to the President.
Media Matters has positited this assertion as have several other sources.
I would like to dispute that and believe it may actually backfire severely.
The first reason that this may be a bad idea is that it reminds people of Iraq. It reminds people that there is a war going on, it puts Bush on the front page, and will dominate news coverage during that period, sucking up oxygen from other stories. It will mash Bush into the news next to every single GOP candidate and their GOTV efforts making a perfect transition to the question, "is Bush dragging down the GOP" and underscoring that this election is all about Iraq, an assertion Republicans are desperately trying to run away from. I think it will greatly assist Democrats in nationalizing this election. The only possible benefit the GOP could get is a picture of Saddam being sentenced and Bush could go on TV and talk about justice for an evil doer/killer, but Saddam will likely disrupt the proceedings and challenge his followers to attack the US troops making any verdict very unsatisfying.
The second reason is that there are at least one million people in the Tikriti Clan and allied with them, including many former Baathists and military leaders. These people control the Sunni triangle. They will not be happy with this news if it is a death sentence, and there could easily be a major spike in the level of violence topped with street protests with people shouting death to America and so on. This will make the evening news to a certain degree, further highlighting the instability in Iraq. The worst case scenario is a major escalation of attacks on US troops as retaliation for this sentence. This will not be a positive development for the US.
If there is not a death sentence for Saddam, there will be major protests among the Shia and the Kurds, upset at Saddam being shown leniency. They will be burning US flags, protesting and possibly even attacking US troops in a major spike in violence. I think we can expect major attacks from the Mahdi army and others as a possible result of such a verdict, blaming the US for this. There will also be statements which call into question the legitimacy of the central government, and perhaps calls for the partition of Iraq because there is not justice from the central government. The possible stories here being either major violence/protest or is the collapse of the Iraqi state imminent. Neither story will be good for Republicans or the nation as a whole.
A fourth possibility is that this may trigger a major bout of Sunni/Shia/Kurd intecine warfare. Again, this will underscore the instability in Iraq. Again, the GOP will not benefit from this and neither will the country.
The bottom line for all of this is that timing this with the elections is a huge risk with few upsides for the President and the US. Even under the best of circumstances he will be damaging Republican candidates, and under the worst of circumstances it could lead to a massive Republican rout. The risks he is taking will affect our position in Iraq. The President may be trying to create a picture of success in Iraq, which is a dangerous thing for him to do at this juncture. He needs to be preparing for possible military and diplomatic contingencies, not planning press conferences.
The heart breaking aspect of all of this is that the President doesn't seem to "get it". If he truly understood the risks of this situation he would not be pursuing this sequence of events. It will blow the partisan divide wide open and one way or another a few Republicans may or may not benefit from that, but the way this is unfolding it is also bound to weaken his hand in negotiating a succesful exit from Iraq and increase the level of American distrust of the Iraq operation, a double whammy. This doesn't make any sense, it is amateurish, and that is what scares me.