It's been five days, so let's check in to the American Research Group's
tracking poll of the NH race. MoE 4%.
3-Day Results | Dec 26-28 | Dec 27-29 | Dec 28-30 | Dec 29-31 | Dec 30- Jan 1
|
Dean | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
Undecided | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
Kerry | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
Clark | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
Lieberman | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Gephardt | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Edwards | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Kucinich | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Braun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sharpton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | | | | |
Sample size | 617 | 622 | 623 | 620 | 630 |
Democrats | 438 | 449 | 453 | 449 | 449 |
Undeclared | 179 | 173 | 170 | 171 | 181 |
Undeclared (%) | 29 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
Methodology |
Looks like Kerry is slipping. ARG has its theory:
John Kerry's drop in the tracking over the past week is the result of a drop in ballot preference for Kerry among women. The drop coincides with Kerry's extensive use of a television spot in New Hampshire featuring children playing outdoors while Kerry delivers a message about not sending children to war for oil. The playback from the ad among women is negative for Kerry, with one respondent summing up the comments by saying that Kerry "voted to send them to Iraq."
Man, I'm not in NH so I obviously don't see what the candidates are running. But wasn't Kerry suddenly
glad that we went into Iraq, post-Saddam capture?