I was poring all morning over the latest House race handicapping from CQ Politics, the Cook and Rothenberg Political Reports, and the National Journal's list of the 50 seats most likely to change parties. As you might expect, the hottest races are basically near the top of everyone's list but they do diverge a little as you get away from the tippy-tip top tier. So I started putting together my own list to keep track of which races the experts tend agree are toss-ups.
To make my list, a race had to appear in any 3 of: National Journal's top 30 races, CQ or Cook's toss-up columns or one of Rothenberg's three toss-up categories (or better) -- Rothenberg actually rates a couple of these races as lean or likely Democratic. A total of 22 races made that cut.
(continued...)
Without exception, the toss-up races are for seats currently held by Republicans. (CQ does rate Ted Strickland's former seat in OH as "No Clear Favorite" but no one else seems to agree.) There are three more Republican seats (AZ 8, FL 16, and TX 22) that CQ, Cook and Rothenberg are calling Democratic pick-ups and National Journal ranks these as 1, 2, and 3 on their list. So who am I to disagree?
When you add those three (plus Vermont) to the current Democratic seat total and subtract the toss-ups and likely turnovers from the Republican count, the totals come to (drum roll please):
Democratic Safe/Likely/Lean: 206
Republican Safe/Likely/Lean: 207
Toss-ups: 22
Now personally, I am inclined to think our side will do better than split the toss-up races this year. But it appears that we're almost to the point where splitting them down the middle would do the trick. There are also three or four more seats (all Republican of course) that I'd be inclined to push into the toss-up column, but rules is rules and I was trying to be very conservative. Anyway, as of this moment I'm officially allowing myself a little cautious optimism about this turning over the House thing. List and links follow. Have a ball.
Meta Toss-Up List
CO 7: OPEN (Beauprez, R)
CT 2: Rob Simmons, R
CT 4: Chris Shays, R
FL 22: Clay Shaw, R
IA 1: OPEN (Nussle, R)
IL 6: OPEN (Hyde, R)
IN 2: Chris Chocola, R
IN 8: John Hostettler, R
IN 9: Mike Sodrel, R
KY 4: Geoff Davis, R
MN 6: OPEN (Kennedy, R)
NC 11: Charles Taylor, R
NM 1: Heather Wilson
NY 24: OPEN (Boehlert, R)
OH 1: Steve Chabot, R
OH 15: Deborah Pryce, R
OH 18: OPEN (Ney, R)
PA 10: Don Sherwood, R
PA 6: Jim Gerlach, R
PA 7: Curt Weldon, R
VA 2: Thelma Drake, R
WI 8: OPEN (Green, R)
Sources:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/...
http://www.cookpolitical.com/...
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/...
http://election.nationaljournal.com/...