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More info below about the election outlook and chambers in play.
Republicans currently control 49 state legislative chambers, Democrats control 47, and 2 are tied. Democrats have not controlled a majority of state legislative chambers since the 2000 elections, although we have been gaining seats and chambers since 2003. Democrats currently hold a slim majority of seats, with a 21 seat advantage going into the 2006 mid-terms.
Democrats came into this cycle on the defense, having won narrow majorities in 2004 in "red" states, like Colorado, Montana, and North Carolina, but we have seen opportunities open up, in states like New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where we can make gains to flip the chamber in '08 with an outside chance of getting it on Tuesday.
Although statehouse races can often run contrary to national political moods (see the Democrats sweeping victory in '04 at the statehouse level), the current environment is still hurting Republicans at the statehouse level. When Republicans are successful at the local level, it's because they nationalize the issues. When Democrats are successful, it's because we localize. Local Republicans aren't able to effectively nationalize the elections this cycle, because their national party doesn't have the credibility.
Democrats must win at the state legislative level in order to have long-term success for four reasons: preparing for redistricting, training the next generation of political leaders, making policy that affects more people's daily lives, and showing Democrats can compete anywhere in the country. Fortunately--through the efforts of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), strong local operations, and community-rooted candidates who run on local issues--we're on a winning streak.
Key chambers to watch on Tuesday:
The chamber margins going into the 2006 elections are closer than ever before, with 42 chambers in 31 states within 5 seats of tying or changing hands.
Colorado House (35D to 30R)
Colorado Senate (18D to 17R)
Democrats took control of both chambers in '04 and hold them by narrow margins. Democrats are poised to keep the Senate, but he House is closer.
Iowa House (49D to 51R)
Iowa Senate (25D to 25R)
Democrats have the inside position to take control of the tied Senate. We have at least an even chance to move the 49-51 Republican House to Democratic control. Democrats made gains in '04 to get both chambers close.
Indiana House (48D to 52R)
Republicans gained this chamber in '04. Republicans have spent a ton of money late, even going up on Indianapolis television, but we still have a strong chance to win this chamber. There is a chance Democrats could gain it back this cycle.
Maine House (74D to 73R to 4I)
Maine Senate (19D to 16R)
The House is a top Republican target, and there are a lot of third party candidates splitting the vote.
Michigan House (52D to 58R)
Michigan Senate (16D to 22R)
Either or both of these currently Republican-held chambers could be our best "sleeper" opportunities for Election Day. Our Caucuses and allies have outcommunicated the other side. If we win--or get close here--we have achieved huge success.
Minnesota House (66D to 68R)
Minnesota Senate (38D to 29R)
The House is a great pickup opportunity for Democrats.
The Senate is only up every four years, so we need to keep a healthy majority.
Montana House (50D to 50R)
Montana Senate (27D to 23R)
Democrats picked up the Senate in '04 and pushed the House to a tie. We have outcommunicated the other side dramatically but both these chambers are extremely competitive due to open seats.
New Hampshire Senate (8D to 16R)
This was a long-term target, but Senate Democrats have run their biggest program ever. We might be able to pick it up early.
There is a Democrat running in 23 of 24 districts; no Democrat had a challenger in the primary; and as a caucus they've raised more money than ever before.
North Carolina House (63D to 57R)
This is a top Republican target. Our majority in the House is narrow, and this is a tough state, but Democrats are beating the Republicans in key races. This was a Democratic win in '04.
Oklahoma Senate (26D to 22R)
Republicans took the House in '04 and have publicly stated that the Senate was their best pickup opportunity this cycle.
Democrats have more open seats due to term limits. A moderate Republican switched parties this summer because she said there wasn't room in the Republican party for moderates.
Ohio House (39D to 59D)
If Democrats can pick up a handful of seats this cycle, we can put the chamber in play in '08, when 20 Republicans are term limited out.
Oregon House (27D to 33R)
Democrats took the Senate in '04. House Democrats have run a huge program and could win or tie this chamber.
Pennsylvania House (94D to 109R)
Republicans had a very divisive primary and a lot of their incumbents lost, leaving open seats.
Tennessee House (53D to 46R)
Tennessee Senate (15D to 18R)
Democrats should hold a tight House chamber. Democrats may have done enough to retake the Senate here as well.
Washington House (56D to 42R)
Democrats took the Senate in '04; we can solidify our majority.
Wisconsin Senate (14D to 19R)
Democrats are poised to make gains in the Senate, which is an important redistricting chamber.
For more info and ongoing updates on election night, visit the DLCC website.