In the runup to the 2004 Presidential elections Georgia's highest ranking old coot, Sen. Zell Miller (D), endorsed President Bush's reelction campaign by famously saying the Democrats were "a national party no more."
Miller coined the phrase and used it as a refrain in his effort to keep George Bush in power.
He even wrote a book about it.
The actual 2004 results showed that Democrats had indeed fared terribly in the South, losing 5 Senate seats and giving Bush a 16 point margin.
But exit polling revealed that Kerry won the West and the Northeast, and split the Midwest down the middle.
The Republican onslaught in 2004, and indeed in previous cycles going back at least a decade had been won by Republicans consolidating their gains in the South, not by shutting out Democrats accross the country.
This "Southern Strategy" had served the Republican party well until yesterday, when it became all too apparent that the party can no longer rely on the South to offset losses elsewhere.
This time around its the Democrats turn to declare the Republican Party "A National Party No More".
But unlike Zell Miller in 2004, we actually have data to prove it.
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This year's national house exit polling is proving to be a treasure trove of information on what the Democrats are doing right.
The most significant statistic in the exit polling is the fact that in the popular house vote Democrats won every region of the country except the South.
The Northeast went Democratic by an astounding 63-35.
The Midwest 52-47.
The West 54-43.
And the Republcians held the South 53-45.
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The most significant trends in the exit polling are where the Democrats are making gains.
First, the Democrats are eliminating the Republican Party as a serious contender in the Northeast, consolidaing a long-term trend.
Second, and perhaps more significantly, the Democrats are making SERIOUS inroads in the West, making more gains there than anywhere else in the nation.
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This Regional Democratic Advantage chart shows these trends clearly, with Democrats holding huge leads over Republicans in the Northeast and the West.
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A look at the swings between the 2004 and the 2006 results reveals even clearer the trends towards the Democrats, especially in the West where we're making the biggest gains.
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The meaning of this data is clear, and its backed up by actual election returns that saw 10 house pickups in the Northeast and 6 or 7 in the West (including a few shockers like NH 01 and KS 02). Santourm went down by double digits, Spitzer up by more than 50. Ritter rocked in Colorado, and JD Hayworth got the boot out of Scottsdale.
Although we made gains in the South as well, it only has 33% of the US population. So long as the Republicans remain the minority party everywhere else, the national government is ours.
We are growing the fastest in the West, and consolidating our already huge advantage in the Northeast.
The Repulican party on its current course is fast becoming a Confederate State party that's still competitive in the border states and the isolated corners of the West, but nowhere else.
The next few years will be crucial. If the Republicans stay on thier Southern fried "Christian values" message they will continue to bleed seats in the Northeast, West, and much of the Midwest.
They're not quite there yet, but the Republicans are in danger of becoming a national party no more.
**UPDATE** Just to clarify, the diarist is not arguing the Democrats should cede the South. Just remarking that the Republicans are ceding the rest of the country to us.
The full exit poll data can be found here:
2006
and here:
2004