There's going to be a bloody civil war if America stays or increases troop levels. Guaranteed. Everyone knows this. If they leave right now there's going to a be a bloody civil war. Guaranteed. Everyone knows this. Those are the Iraqi facts.
Dividing Iraq into three states is insane: no oil sharing agreement can ever be reached, civil war is again inevitable. Not to mention that the Kurds are being played by both Israeli and American black-ops right now and we know what happens to intelligence assets in the end: they get screwed.
Increasing Iraqi police and military numbers is pointless: 65% of them are
going to be Shiite and that's where their allegiance ultimately lies. Again, civil war.
What would the Roman army have done 2000 years ago? They would have gone in with overwhelming force and immediately rebuilt the territory to Roman standards, the people would quickly have forgotten the old tyrant and fallen in line, because their quality of life would have improved. But of course, Rome was intelligent and powerful and this Assinine Administration are stupid and weak.
My solution:
- Shiite (65% of population) region containing about 40% of Iraq's oil is annexed to Iran - it's going to be part of Iran eventually anyway under ANY of the scenarios now being considered. Baghdad goes to Iran.
- Sunni (25% of population) get the area from the Saudi border to Tikrit and about 40% of the oil (that's their incentive). They get Tikrit.
- Kurd's (10% of population) get the land and oil north of Tikrit (20%). In addition Iran turns over a small area of it's territory adjacent to the new Kurdistan for their own Kurd population should they want that.
(The exact borders would have to take into account geological surveys and fresh water issues, but that would be a relatively simple task.)
Both Sunnis and Kurds are well looked after under this scenario. Shias, who are giving up the most in this transaction need to be compensated in some other way. The rebuilding of Shia infrastructure, hospitals, schools and housing would be guaranteed by Iran and Iran would guarantee and secure the new borders.
For their efforts Iran gets the new land and oil (obviously), a security agreement with Israel and the US, and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
The SC seat is the most important concession as it finally gives the Middle East and Muslims the representation they deserve in a political arena now dominated and controlled mainly by the west. Considering the importance of the ME in the global economy the current lack of representation is simply Criminal. They must be treated as equals.
Iran's membership in the SC would immediately address so many problems:
Muslims would finally feel they are part of the desicion making progress; Israel would be incentivized to come to an agreement re it's borders; Iran would be pressured to keep the peace in the region...and so many other obvious benefits.
It's a no-brainer, imo.