In my stock market days I have learned to depend on self and
only use my own work. However there are few old hands that I
always want to know what they have to say. One such expert,
Eric Hadik has stated that a top of historic proportions is
occuring. I don't personally know about the historic implications
but I'm taking his word for now.
Background below.
This may have been discussed, the 10% annual per household
debt growth, now approaching a vertical and
infinite rate of acceleration. How many times are they
going to refinance the same house? How many credit cards
can they have?
Maybe not discussed is this nonsense. Apparently per household
income has risen a mere .5% annually, with compounding, over 37
years, adjusted for inflation. From 35k to 44K per household, from
1967 to 2004, is .5% compounded.
This doesn't consider any difference from a conventional
one income family of 1967, to two incomes.
It took two incomes to gain .5% annual growth!
To me that's getting cut in half.
It doesn't take out the fact the Bill Gates alone substantially
inflates the per household income statistic for the entire state of Washington. In 1966 CEO compensation was 10X average, today it is
400x average. This is a major anomolie corrupting the illusion
of per household income growth. In abnormal histograms, it is criminal
to use the anomolous 1% of data above 3M income to corrupt the descriptive statistics about the body of the histogram, that is
centered at 44k.
You can see this income histogram in the recent Time issue about
the 300M population.
This .5% annual growth is supposedly adjusted for inflation. But wait, something stinks already. Checking historic consumer price index data,
I find the cumulative inflation is 580% since 1967. This is obvious, just price up the things you bought in 1966. I say it is really 900-1000%, where they have been rigging the data for years with price modifications like the "quality" models.
Here is a first hand model of inflation and living standard I know of:
Engineer 1966 2006
Salary 45k 80k
gasoline .29 2.75
cigarettes .37 3.25
home 20k 250k
car 3000 20000
college tuition 500 10000
soda .10 1.0
medical plan 0 3000
You can see where that's going. Taking the phony 580% "admitted" CPI
increase from 1967 to 2004, 2004 single salary would have to be 203k
to keep up with the 1967 living standard. Cut at least in half right there. But these days the per household income takes two workers,
your in the range that the american people were cut in 1/4.
Family values indeed.
If real inflation were used it would be well over 300k
single income to stay even with the 1967 living standard.
Further Robert Reich says per household was down another
1k in 2005 and we know inflation was 3,4, then 5% consecutive
the last three years. It's even worse since 2004.
Now this is my area. All this is real bad but it doesn't
say when, when will it come tumbling down. They can always print
more dollars, refinance the housing bubble one more time, etc.
This is relative the my concept that all the shit goes into
one end of the new york stock exchange and comes out the other
end in price. It's all the same thing, economics, civilization,
living standard, stock market price, all one thing.
This data is the SP500 stock market in logarithm scale.
The symmetry is very powerful, implies that the market is
falling away from the historic rate of change. We often find
that a new declining channel takes the same but inverse slope
as the expired channel. We also find that the entire previous
increase is completely retraced. I'm not saying that yet, but
the initial stages of falling out of the american prosperity
cycle is near. That roll over takes a long time with counter
trend attempts and interventions.
The damage is systemic and irreversible, I was not even in favor
of democrats sharing power during this collapse. That being the
case it is imperative that democrats explain to Americans what
has happened and is likely to come next. I'm talking major collapse.
Actually, that already happened to the people since 1967, now I'm talking
mere survival of the civilization.
Just anecdotally, one other characteristic said about the end of
empire is the downturn in the birth rate. Other former empires survived
after dislocations, usually after war. We don't know exactly how it
will happen, history doesn't repeat but it rhymes.
I know this, america died in 2000, but it got a big kick in the
heart around 1967, about when they killed the Kennedys.