Although the paper is generally a GOP propaganda rag, the
Columbus Dispatch conducts polls that are widely regarded as the most accurate and best predictor of results in Ohio. Today the Dispatch has published its
final pre-election poll, commenting that the numbers look
staggering for Democrats. In all of the state-wide races, the Democratic candidates have double-digit leads, some of them by crushing margins, and the lead has been widening in nearly all of them since the September 24th poll. If these numbers hold up on Tuesday, we will be looking at Blue Buckeye blowout of historic proportions.
As noted by the Dispatch, a strong turnout on Tuesday is the GOP's only hope. They were very good at it in 2004, so it looks like GOTV is everything and the only thing that counts over the next two days.
In the
Governor's race, Ted Strickland is demolishing the whacked-out election-corrupting Secretary of State Kenneth "The Nut" Blackwell by 67% to 31%, better than a two-to-one margin. He has 96% support among Democrats and 73% among independents, and even 26% among Republicans. He is favored by two-to-one margins by both genders and all income levels, age groups, races, educational levels, religions and in most regions. Black voters favor Strickland by 80% to 18%; Jewish respondents in the poll favored Strickland by 100% to 0.
In the Senate race, which was long regarded as one of the closest ones in the country, the Dispatch shows Sherrod Brown leading by a whopping 62% to 38% over incumbent Mike DeWine, by far the largest lead I've seen in any poll so far. The national GOP has pulled out of this one, leaving DeWine to throw dirt about an unnamed staffer in Brown's office who was never charged or indicted for alleged crimes committed twenty years ago, and get chewed out for it by Chris Matthews.
In the race to replace Blackwell as Secretary of State, Jennifer Brunner is leading Greg Hartmann by 21 percentage points. Brunner, who recently graced the Daily Kos with a Q&A diary, is an outstanding candidate, intelligent and determined, and she has presented a strong case for improving the electoral process in Ohio. Having her take over for Blackwell is the best thing we could have wished for after all of the ugly allegations about election shenanigans in recent years.
In the race for State Treasurer, the Dispatch shows Richard Cordray leading Sandy O'Brien by 28 percentage points.
The closer ones, relatively speaking, are for Auditor and Attorney General. The poll shows Barbara Sykes leading by 10 percentage points in the race for Auditor, a 12% turnaround since September 24th. Marc Dann is also leading by 10 percentage points in the race for Attorney General over former AG "Bloody" Betty Montgomery, but his lead has narrowed by 8 points since September 24th. The AG election is very important, because Dann has promised to aggressively investigate cases of corruption that has been alleged over the past few years, particularly the 2004 elections.
The only Republicans who appear to be doing well are running for judge -- where the party affiliation is not shown on the ballot. Both Republican candidates are leading in the races for the Ohio Supreme Court (one of them within the margin of error). If that holds up on Tuesday, the Supreme Court will consist entirely of Republicans, the first time that's happened since 1921.
The poll was conducted from October 25th until last Friday, and has a 2.2% margin of error.
In an article titled "Could it be this bad for the GOP?", the Dispatch is reporting that over a third of Ohioans are planning to vote a straight Democratic ticket, twice the number of GOP straight-ticket voters. The whopping lead for Strickland appears to be pulling the other Democratic candidates along on his coattails.
If the Democrats sweep the Republicans in all of the statewide races, it will be the first time that's happened since 1883.
I agree with kos and others that we mustn't be complacent, since the only poll that counts will be taken on Tuesday. The Republicans were surprisingly good at motivating their base in Ohio to vote in 2004, which effectively won the election for them. Indications are that the GOP base is dispirited this time around, with many Republicans switching sides. The GOTV efforts of Democrats over the next 48 hours will be absolutely crucial.
But I think we can allow ourselves a few things until Tuesday that have been unfamiliar to Ohio Democrats on election day in recent years: optimism, hope and confidence. Not that we can let up or become arrogant, but we can go forward with the knowledge that tremendous momentum is on our side.
I very much regret that I live so far away from home, and can't get help get Democratic voters to the polls on Tuesday. All I can do is cheer on my fellow Ahians who are out there getting the hard work done. I don't remember any election in my home state that I've felt more passionate about. If the results on Tuesday are anything like this poll, it will send one of the most resounding political messages of a generation. It will be a well-deserved comeuppance for a state GOP that has been relentlessly corrupt; and it will have strong national implications if a purplish swing state turns to a beautiful shade of blue. And perhaps the sweetest of all: the politics of a Ken Blackwell, with all of his far-out fundamentalism, intolerance and cheating of the democratic system, will be utterly repudiated, skewered at the stake.
I'd like to send my deepest thanks out to fellow Buckeyes who will spend the next two days contacting voters, helping them get to the polls, and monitoring the process on Tuesday. Go get 'em, you guys; let's crush those bastards like bugs.