Three new national polls, and polling in
47 individual races, marks the penultimate edition of FTP. In so doing, I will also endeavor to alleviate the hand-wringing that strikes so many folks today (myself included).
Follow me below the fold for the numbers, and the analysis.
NATIONAL POLLS
A trio of national polls out today, as we see new numbers from Time, ABC/WaPo, and Pew. Much gnashing of the teeth has already been rendered on the Pew and ABC polls, which have been interpreted by some as evidence of a late GOP "surge." After all, among likely voters, the ABC poll has the race at six points (51-45), and the Pew poll has it at a mere four points (47-43).
Please consider the following three factors when wetting yourself over this information:
1) Among registered voters, the ABC poll has it at ten points (53-43), and the Pew poll has it at eight points (48-40). In BOTH cases, this is a change of just three points from the previous surveys by these respective pollsters.
2) Comparing the differences between the numbers for Reg. Voters and Likely Voters, it becomes evident that the ABC/WaPo and Pew pollsters are the last people on earth who think that Republicans are more likely to vote on Tuesday than Democrats. RT/Cook had a difference between RVs and LVs of about 8 points in the DEMOCRATS favor. Newsweek had it their LVs and RVs at the same margin.
3) To fixate on these two polls is to ignore both the Time poll (which has Democrats leading 55-40), and the Newsweek poll (which has Democrats leading 54-38). EVEN MORE INTRIGUING, according to Polling Report, the pollsters for Newsweek (Princeton Survey) and Time (SRBI Public Affairs) combine to create the Pew survey. Go freakin' figure.....
So, the operant theme for today--calm the f**k down.
INDIVIDUAL RACES
Another reason to take a deep breath and not rend your garments. In today's new numbers in 47 individual contests, Democrats can claim momentum in 24 contests, compared to just 9 races with Republican momentum. 14 races have stagnant momentum, which is (all in all) good news for the Democrats.
AZ-GOV: Gov. Napolitano (D) 61%, Munsil (R) 33% [Dems]
Mason-Dixon is your pollster here, and they show what everyone except SUSA has shown--a Napolitano landslide.
AZ-SEN: Sen. Kyl (R) 49%, Pederson (D) 41% [Dems]
MSNBC adds this to their series of Senate polls conducted by Mason-Dixon. What we see--a race closer than SUSA had it, but still a tough, tough get for the Democrats.
CA-48: Rep. Campbell (R) 56%, Young (D) 37% [Dems]
SurveyUSA polls this race (why, I am not so certain). Young is polling better than his performance in the 12/05 special election here, but he is still down nearly 20 here.
CA-50: Rep. Bilbray (R) 55%, Busby (D) 41% [GOP]
I start to wonder if that early October SUSA poll here was an aberration. The good news--it did lead the NRCC to throw money in here. SurveyUSA re-polls here, and finds what they found in September.
CO-05: Lamborn (R) 51%, Fawcett (D) 42% [Neutral]
SurveyUSA polls here, and finds the race within single digits. Much like the AZ Senate race, this race is possible, but it is a tough get.
FL-GOV: Crist (R) 48%, Davis (D) 38% [GOP]
Zogby polls here on Election eve, and shows that Crist has a solid lead, but he is also under 50%. Interestingly, the Tampa Bay Post is reporting that the Crist campaign has internals that have the race in single digits.
FL-SEN: Sen. Nelson (D) 60%, Harris (R) 31% [Dems]
This Zogby poll confirms that this will be, whatever the other outcomes of the evening are, a piece of honest-to-goodness schaudenfreude for Democrats everywhere.
FL-09: Bilirakis (R) 53%, Busansky (D) 41% [Dems]
SurveyUSA polls this district again, and finds a late surge for Busansky, who was down by nearly 30 points in previous polling here. A late upset for the Democrats, or too little and too late?
FL-22: Klein (D) 49%, Rep. Shaw (R) 40% [Dems]
This Zogby poll shows a Republican incumbent that most people thought would hang on is in serious peril. If Klein is in trouble, you gotta wonder about some other GOP incumbents.
IA-GOV: Culver (D) 52%, Nussle (R) 43% [Dems]
The Des Moines Register issues their pre-election poll, and it shows a solid lead for the Democrat here at the last. One small caveat--they reported that Nussle did better in the later days than the early days. They did not, however, specify what "better" meant.
IA-01: Braley (D) 56%, Whalen (R) 35% [Dems]
The Des Moines Register polls the Nussle open seat, and gives the most one-sided result to date: a 21-point lead for the Democrats. I'll be happily shocked if the final margin is this one-sided.
MD-GOV: O'Malley (D) 45%, Gov. Ehrlich (R) 45% [Neutral]
This race is rapidly developing into what promises to be the closest gubernatorial race in the country Tuesday, if this Mason-Dixon poll is any indication.
MD-SEN: Cardin (D) 47%, Steele (R) 44% [Dems]
After Friday's SUSA poll had this race tied, Mason-Dixon has Cardin staked to a very narrow lead. Another cliffhanger for Election night??
MI-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Granholm (D) 53%, DeVos (R) 39.5% [Dems]
Two late polls by Mason Dixon (52-38) and the Detroit Free Press (54-41) confirm a late break in this race for the Democrats. Could this yield some surprise upsets in the House or the state legislature?
MI-SEN: (2 polls) Sen. Stabenow (D) 53%, Bouchard (R) 35.5% [Dems]
The new polls from Mason-Dixon (53-37) and the Detroit Free Press (53-34) also confirm a Democratic trend in the state of Michigan.
MN-GOV: (2 polls) Hatch (D) 46%, Gov. Pawlenty (R) 42.5% [Neutral]
After a pretty memorable week for Hatch (including a mini-flap involving his Lt.Gov nominee and his perhaps calling a male reporter a "Republican Whore"), his standing on the polls is essentially unchanged, according to new polls from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (45-40) and Rasmussen (47-45). Hutchinson is at 6-7% of the vote here.
MN-SEN: Klobuchar (D) 54%, Kennedy (R) 37% [Dems]
Both Rasmussen (54-40) and the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (54-34) confirm a solid double-digit edge for Klobuchar, amid an earlier Mason-Dixon poll showing the race tightening.
MN-06: Bachmann (R) 49%, Wetterling (D) 42% [Neutral]
This is an interesting race to watch on Tuesday. Both Chuck Todd and John Mercurio picked Wetterling to win this race, while this SurveyUSA poll confirms a recent Zogby poll showing this race getting away from the Democrat.
MO-SEN: McCaskill (D) 46%, Sen. Talent (R) 45% [Neutral]
Another day, another poll (this one by Mason-Dixon) showing Claire McCaskill leading Jim Talent by a single point. It seems like the last 15 polls have had this exact result (I know, I know, it has only been 2 or 3).
MT-SEN: Tester (D) 50%, Sen. Burns (R) 48% [Neutral]
This is now officially a toss-up heading into Election Day. Rasmussen, three days after giving Jon Tester a four-point edge, now gives him a two-point lead.
NH-GOV: Gov. Lynch (D) 72%, Coburn (R) 18% [Neutral]
The UNH tracking poll shows little movement in this re-election rout for John Lynch.
NH-01: Rep. Bradley (R) 50%, Shea-Porter (D) 39% [GOP]
There IS movement in the UNH tracking poll for the House races, and it is in the wrong direction for underdog Carol Shea-Porter. What was a five-point lead for the Republican is now eleven.
NH-02: Hodes (D) 47%, Rep. Bass (R) 38% [GOP]
The UNH tracking poll also heads in the Republicans' direction in this tossup race, as the lead for Paul Hodes shrinks from 13 points to nine points.
NJ-SEN: Sen. Menendez (D) 46.5%, Kean (R) 41.5% [GOP]
Depends on who you believe in this race: if you believe Gannett (45-42), this race is tightening once again at the last second. If you believe Mason-Dixon (48-41), Menendez has a small lead, but a secure one.
NM-GOV: Gov. Richardson (D) 65%, Dendahl (R) 24% [Dems]
The Albuquerque Journal polls this race, and finds it to be even more of a rout than it was a few months back. A little depressed GOP turnout because of a lack of oomph at the top of the ticket would be just the tonic for Patricia Madrid, dontcha think?
NM-SEN: Sen. Bingaman (D) 65%, McCulloch (R) 23% [Neutral]
This race has remained essentially unchanged since the summer. Jeff Bingaman has a huge lead over David McCulloch, according to this Albuquerque Journal poll.
NM-01: Madrid (D) 50%, Rep. Wilson (R) 46% [Neutral]
The Albuquerque Journal poll has Madrid leading for the second time in three weeks, and with a slightly wider lead. More importantly, the Journal poll now has Madrid at the magic 50% mark, with leaners included.
NM-02: Rep. Pearce (R) 59%, Kissling (D) 33% [Dems]
According to this Journal poll, the undecideds are breaking for Kissling, but there simply are not enough of them to make a dent in this race.
NM-03: Rep. Udall (D) 71%, Dolin (R) 20% [Dems]
This race has always been a rout, according to available polling, but the new Journal poll indicates it is now a MAJOR rout.
NY-GOV: Spitzer (D) 72%, Faso (R) 22% [Dems]
The new Newsday poll has Spitzer back over 70%, and all is well with the world once again. This race really started to worry me once Spitzer plummeted back into the sixties.
NY-SEN: Sen. Clinton (D) 64%, Spencer (R) 31% [Neutral]
HRC's pedestrian 2006 campaign is en route to a decisive victory, according to this new Newsday poll. Now, the question--what are her plans for 2008?
NY-20: Gillibrand (D) 46%, Rep. Sweeney (D) 43% [Dems]
This new poll is significant, because it was done by the same independent pollster (Siena College) that had Sweeney ahead comfortably (53-39) just two weeks ago. And according to the pollster, the demographic breakdown is virtually identical.
NY-26: Rep. Reynolds (R) 50%, Davis (D) 46% [Neutral]
SurveyUSA comes back to upstate New York, and reaches an almost identical conclusion to their poll last week. Davis is one point closer, but Reynolds is sitting on 50%.
OK-GOV: Gov. Henry (D) 65%, Istook (R) 29% [Neutral]
The rout continues, according to this SUSA poll. The question, now, is coattails. The battle for Lt. Governor is tightening up, as Democrat Jari Askins has her smallest lead of the campaign (four points).
OH-GOV: Strickland (D) 67%, Blackwell (R) 31% [Dems]
OK...I am including this one under a bit of internal duress. I thought polls-by-mail went away when Literary Journal projected Alf Landon as president in 1936. And the Columbus Dispatch got embarrassed in 2005. But, apparently, their track record in candidate races is strong. The fellas at Pollster included it, so I will, too. I will also laugh out loud if Strickland really wins this by 36%.
OH-SEN: (2 polls) Brown (D) 56%, Sen. DeWine (R) 41% [Dems]
Two polls here--as the Columbus Dispatch (62-38) and Mason-Dixon (50-44) come to very different conclusions about this race. All I am saying--somebody is way wrong on this one, unless Brown wins by 15 points.
PA-GOV: Gov. Rendell (D) 56%, Swann (R) 38% [GOP]
Mason-Dixon has this race closer than most, but I would not say that they have this race close. Rendell is sailing to re-election.
PA-SEN: Casey (D) 52%, Sen. Santorum (R) 39% [Dems]
After some single digit outcomes, the Mason Dixon poll re-establishes Santorum as a double-digit underdog.
RI-GOV: Gov. Carcieri (R) 50%, Fogarty (D) 42% [Neutral]
Everyone is talking about the Senate poll here by Mason-Dixon, and this gubernatorial poll by Mason-Dixon is why you SHOULD worry about the Senate poll here. If Carcieri was up 20 in this poll, we might be able to dispute the poll on its face. But this result (Republican +8) is very much in-line with other recent polls. Which means one thing.....
RI-SEN: Sen. Chafee (R) 46%, Whitehouse (D) 45% [GOP]
The gov. polls means one thing...this result is at least a little bit legitimate. There have been rumors out there of tightening in this race, and they seem to be justified.
TN-GOV: Gov. Bredesen (D) 61%, Bryson (R) 26% [Dems]
After other polls have shown this race closer, this new poll by Mason-Dixon shows us that Bredesen is comfortably ahead in his bid for re-election.
TN-SEN: (2 polls) Corker (R) 50.5%, Ford (D) 42.5% [GOP]
Again, where this race stands depends on which poll you believe: Rasmussen has Corker leading, but with a declining lead (51-47). Mason-Dixon has Corker leading handily (50-38).
TX-GOV: Gov. Perry (R) 39%, Bell (D) 22%, Strayhorn 18%, Friedman 14% [Neutral]
The Dallas Morning news comes in here, and confirms what we already knew: Perry will win, with well under 50% of the vote, because three legitimate candidates are opposing him.
UT-SEN: Hatch (R) 61%, Ashdown (D) 31% [Dems]
This race is closer than it has ever been, according to Mason-Dixon. That said, a thirty-point lead is a thirty-point lead.
UT-03: Rep. Cannon (R) 55%, Burridge (D) 32% [Dems]
Another race in the most Republican state in the Union that is tightening, but in no serious danger of changing hands. This poll also comes to us from Mason-Dixon.
VA-SEN: Webb (D) 46%, Sen. Allen (R) 45% [Neutral]
This is somewhat significant, at it is the first time that Mason-Dixon (who had Allen up four about a week ago) has shown Jim Webb with the lead here.
WA-SEN: Sen. Cantwell (D) 54%, McGavick (R) 38% [Dems]
Cantwell seems to be pulling away at the close of this race, according to this Mason-Dixon poll. Dems are hoping she can pull Burner and Goldmark across the line as well.
And...that wraps it up for the second-to-last version of this diary. Next week, I get back to doing diaries on whatever the heck angers me that day. Which will be fun, but this has been as well. Hope you enjoyed the numerical buffet. And, hopefully, you are doing what matters most right now: finding time in your schedule to get out the vote. I'll be somewhere in SoCal on Tuesday walking the precincts, I can assure you.
Until then, take care, and enjoy the rest of the weekend....