Sheesh.
The Dean minutemen mostly didn't show up; the group that did, was mostly disorganized; and those who were organized drove people to the caucuses who voted for not-Dean. As for the standing army, it wore out its welcome, and was felt to be too pushy. Dean's heavy neg's had real consequences: Kerry won with 10% neg, Dean lost with 30+% neg. Kerry's push polling and Edwardian pamphlet distribution hurt. And Dean's running against the media didn't help.
Dean now has to: completely revamp his campaign model. He has to get good ads. He can't run against the press. He has to fight fire with fire, and push poll. He needs to bring in the pro's from Dover.
He should be meaner. After all, everyone already thinks he's a bastard, so he might as well run on it.
If he loses NH, the gig is up. And he really has to have a clear win, of say 10 percent or so.
The media now is in the position of the crowd at the gladiatorial games: thumbs up, or thumbs down? Dean never did the media any favors. Yet he's a money-maker for them; they're invested in hating him, as they are in Hillary. I really doubt they'll push Kerry, unless they really like Bush. Funny, it really is up to the despised media: who do they want, Dean, Clark, Kerry, or Edwards?
They can easily kill Dean, and may.
At least Gep is out - Joe Klein was sure wrong about that.
I still can't believe in Kerry. I know him fairly well, I've read his book and articles about him - nothing in his bio says winner to me.
Iowa was a death match between Dean and Gep, and BOTH men went down. Now NH is a four way death match between Dean and Kerry and Clark and Liebermann, but Kerry and Clark are the most natural antagonists (since their ground-machines are both vet-heavy). I hope Clark takes Kerry down, AND allows Dean to keep a slim win.
But remember, Kerry's ground campaign is very strong, and he does negative advertising smartly, while Clark's campaign is dangerously green; it will have all the weaknesses of Dean's campaign in Iowa, and none of the experience.
So what if Kerry takes down Clark and Dean? Or what if Liebermann ascends?
I shudder to think.
Kerry is disturbing; he reminds me of Grey Davis. The most favorable comparison I can think of is between him and Mad-Eyed Moody in the H. Potter books: fucked and broken, but sharp as a tack mentally and good at heart. He has this one virtue: He could run a super-dirty campaign against Bush, a la Davis. But Rove could double Kerry's own negs, easily, and W would roll to victory.
Please, Lord, I'll take Dean for VP, I'll canvass for Edwards and Clark, I'll donate to Sharpton and Liebermann, but don't give me Kerry!!!
(The only man I'm happy for this morning is Al Franken, who really went out on a limb for Kerry in his book.)
Follow Zogby, though, follow Zogby. He sure pegged this one. Take his spread, exaggerate the differences, and take it for the truth.