Everyone our here in the west knows you just can't tame coyotes. You think they're your pets, but one day you hear that howling, run outside and see that yellow look in their eyes.
They're dead chickens all around, the real dog is bleeding, and oh my god, somebody check on the baby.
The Democrats will win today because the Republicans forgot you can't really tame the mainstream media either. In chasing the Foley story, the media went into full blood-maddened frenzy mode. In this state, writers and editors do not respond to dog whistles, sharp German language commands, or even tranquilizer darts. There is simply no stopping wild animals when they are tearing apart wounded prey. What the GOP had was no longer a well-trained team of attack dogs, but a marauding pack of wild canine predators, like dingoes or timber wolves.
Radio, newspapers, the Web, and, of course, television, all combined to knock the legs from under the four-legged table that might have saved the House for the GOP:
1. National Security, Terrorism, and Iraq.
Today's election is about Iraq, not terrorism. Why? Because Rove's blame-Clinton initiative failed, stuffed back up his nose when ABC blinked in the face of an Internet storm of protest.
Clinton himself delivered a roundhouse finish on Fox News.
The complete unraveling of the GOP story line came in the final week. The White House not only admitted giving away nuclear secrets on its web site, but also blamed congressional Republicans for the horrendous blunder.
2. Family values. The two big "gay" stories really were about family values this year, which is why they were of interest to wide audiences, not just the usual suspects in the two subcultures. Foley is a child molester, so he's a threat to anyone's family. He might even get drunk and molest your daughter by mistake. He's a child molester, and that's a problem.
Similarly, this tinhorn Elmer Gantry in Colorado is a whore-buying adulterer with five kids and a hard-drug habit. That ain't good. The next time the subject of family values comes up, the Republicans might do better to sit down and shut up.
3. Presidential Approval and Profile Bush needed to either get more popular or get out of sight. He did neither. He sought to improve his standing by contrast and blame, as he typically has, first with the 9/11 movie, then with the "Kerry hates his fellow Veterans" claim.
The Kerry play slowed Democratic momentum a bit--nothing good lasts forever--but it also thrust both Bush and Iraq front and center. The GOP did not want this election to be a referendum on a 38.1% approval-rating president. The final weekend's contrast was not between Bush and Kerry. It was between a dazed and confused Bush defending Nebraska and an ebullient and optimistic Clinton on offense in Virginia, where, I make bold to say, we are going to win.
4. Get Out the Vote A complacent Democratic GOTV combined with an energized Republican campaign might have reversed some close races at the end. But the bi preacher and Foley stories drained the last ounce of enthusiasm from the GOP's shock troops; they don't have any volunteers left. Did you hear anything from the churches yesterday?
What's left of the 72-hour plan is a soulless machine of telemarketing firms and paid canvassers.
The final few days were a perfect storm of horrible stories for the GOP, relieved only by process stories about some late polls seeming to show Republican movement. Since the late deciders were listening only to things to that concern them--male whores, nuke secrets--the real audience for the "GOP may win" stories were the terrified, grim-faced, motivated Democratic GOTV workers.
Don't make a liar out of me, kids. Stay scared.