New York City, bastion of Democratic strength is about to be under Republican hands for 16 years.. unless Democratic challengers make massive changes. Find out why (and take the pop quiz)
In a city with a 5 to 1 Democratic registration, Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg hosted the Republican convention and 'wined and dined the necons' - an offense which alone should sink him.
He failed in the undertaking he spent most of his time on - the 2012 Olympics bid, and has seen increases in crime, losses in jobs and decrease in service quality (read subways) under his term. No, NYC is not sinking into the Hudson, but there is certianly meat on the bone to pick at in Bloomberg's performance.
Yet he has a 64% approval rating and at least four Democrats, none of whom has the support to beat Bloomberg, are squabbling over the nomination to run against him.
Council Speaker Gifford Miller couldn't answer a question about would he send his kids to private school without looking for his wife in the audience. Virginia Fields has been rocked with scandals. Congressman Andrew Weiner took on unions for endorsing Bloomberg, but ended up looking like a crybaby and suffered from union protests and an inflattable rat outside his office. Most disapointing is Fernando Ferrer, who with his Hispanic support should be besting Bloomberg (after all, Hispanics in great numbers had defected from Mark Green in 2001 and sealed victory for Mayor Mike.) Ferrer hasn't been able to decide if he's liberal or moderate, if he'll be the NYPD cop's best friend or side with the anti-police brutality activists, and he had to apologize in a debate for how 'clumsy' he's been sounding. But all four of them are making a critical mistake - they are not stating convincing reasons for city voters to change from Mayor Mike.
The real problem may be the Democratic nature of New York City itself. Because it so Democratic, Democrats have stopped running; hoping to "float" and let the Democratic registration of the town carry them to victory. Democrats should always be flipping the debate, being on offense, discovering needs of voters and solutions. The idea of simple 'coalition building' can be a foundaton of a good campaign but will rarely bring victory, and almost never against an incumbent. But NYC Democrats better wake up: It's been more than ten years since a Democrat was mayor of New York, and it looks so far like Republicans will hold New York City for an unbelievable sixteen years.
New York City Democrats have a history of this 'floating' behavior. Mark Green thought he could rely on Democratic registration to win in a post 9/11 atmosphere, and it didn't work. In 1997 Ruth Messinger won the nomination and Democrats saluted that she beat Al Sharpton and 'saved' the Democratic Party. A lot of good she did. She took a gimmicky step of campaigning with a MetroCard - the newly launched debit-style card for subway rides - forgetting that this HIGHLIGHTED her opponent's new policy achievements.
Incumbent elections are about the incumbent. Are they performing or not performing? Do we fire them or not fire them? As was Kerry's failing in the 2004 Presidential race, when an incumbent is up you must challenge. You will not win the election by adopting the same policies, but pledging to better than the incumbent. People must be sold that they must fire the incumbent, not hire you. If you really think what the incumbent is doing is great, why are you running?
OK. Pop quiz. So how would you answer if you were given this question?:
Was Michael R. Bloomberg a better mayor than his predecessor, Rudolph W. Gulliani?
Now remember, you are a Democratic candidate running for mayor. And I KNOW, you may not have liked Guilliani or his term. But get a reality check -- you are trying to show that the city needs different leadership. So yeah, I think you'd better find a way to say Bloomberg is worse than his predecessor.
What was the NYC Mayoral Hopefuls answer?
Answer: Only Weiner, one of the four said Bloomberg was worse than his predecessor.
Unless this mentality changes, these candidates are toast.