Don't think that the 2008 federal elections are the next important thing for us. Don't get me wrong, they are, but even more important are the state races next year.
I'm not doing any research, just typing this off the top of my head, but if I remember correctly, there are four states with elections in 2007: Virginia elects the House of Delegates and the Senate, Mississippi and Kentucky elect all state offices, and I'm pretty sure there's one other state I can't remember (maybe Louisiana, don't quote me on that).
I don't know much about anyplace except my home state of Mississippi, so that's what I'll talk about. Feel free to provide analysis on other states in the comments, if you're so inclined.
Mississippi has eight statewide elected offices.
Governor: I wish, wish, wish that somebody would step up to the damn plate and take on Haley Barbour. There's a perception that he is unbeatable, due to the masterful spin he executed in the post-Katrina period. None of the big name Democrats seem interested in going after Barbour, and the only name I've even heard rumors about is Wayne Dowdy, former Congressman and current Mississippi Democratic chairman. Dowdy's last election was 1988, when he lost to Trent Lott for John Stennis's Senate seat. I don't see him knocking off Barbour.
Lieutenant Governor: Current incumbent and Democratic traitor Amy Tuck is term-limited, thank G-d. This race is where most of the action is going to be, it looks like. On the GOP side, State Auditor Phil Bryant seems to be the fronrunner, although Sen. Charlie Ross could play spoiler. For us, it looks like Rep. Jamie Franks is the only current candidate. I don't see anyone making a serious run at him.
Attorney General: Democrat Jim Hood is up for re-election. He may decide to jump in the Governor's race, but I bet he waits 'til 2011, when it's an open seat. If he jumps, look for Jackson lawyers to crowd the field on both sides. If he doesn't, I can't see the GOP knocking him out after his role in the Cheney, Goodman, and Schwerner murder trials.
State Auditor: An open seat with GOP incumbent Phil Bryant running for the #2 job, this race is completely unpredictable. The Auditor's office has been Haley's major tool in going after the tobacco settlement that has been such a benefit to the state, so you can bet he'll find his strongest possible candidate. Amy Tuck's available, he might try to plug her in there. On our side, your guess is as good as mine, although the Democratic chairmen of House Appropriations, PEER (the state pension system), or Ways and Means, Jimmy Stringer, Dirk Dedeaux, and Percy Watson, would all have legitimate claims. If I have to pick one, I'd go with Dedeaux, since I know he's ambitious.
Secretary of State: Democratic incumbent Eric Clark may also jump into the Governor's race, but is probably making the same calculation Hood is. He'll probably sit tight, and he'll be tough to beat. This is another race where Amy Tuck has been mentioned for a game of musical chairs.
State Treasurer: GOP incumbent Tate Reeves is immensely popular because of his energetic pushing of the Unclaimed Property Database. We may skip this race, and even if we don't, I don't know who would run.
Insurance Commissioner: Democratic incumbent George Dale is hard-working, low-profile, and largely unnoticed except in times of disaster. He single-handedly beat back the insurance companies in their Haley-backed effort to raise the wind pool rates by 400% (the wind pool is a tax on every policy written in the state to help subsidize wind damage insurance on the Gulf Coast) and kept the raise to only 90%. Republicans might make an argument against him, but bet on Dale.
Agriculture Commissioner: Dr. Lester Spell switched to the GOP in 2005, because he knows that no matter which party he's in, he's in trouble in 2007. Dr. Spell was closely connected with a failed beef processing plant in north Mississippi that cost the state $53 million, and he's going to get hit hard with that. I guess he thinks Democrats won't land as many punches, and he'll have a better chance to survive. I think he's a Republican albatross. If he hadn't switched, they could have easily picked up the seat against him. Having to support him is much iffier, and there may even be a primary challenge.
In addition, Mississippi has Transport Commissioners that are divided into three districts. I know nothing about these races, except that they are frequently stepping-stones to higher office.
Some of the Mississippi Supreme Court will be up for grabs. Look for Justice Oliver Diaz to lose his seat after his trial on federal corruption charges in 2005 - he was acquitted, but that's an easy and effective attack ad.
As for the State Legislature, Democrats currently hold the House by about ten seats and have, I believe, a two-seat majority in the Senate. The Senate is controlled by Republicans, however, as the Lieutenant Governor, as President of the Senate, makes committee assignments and awards chairmanships. Look for us to (roughly) hold even. Democrats have won every single special election in the House since 2004, but I think we give back some seats on the Coast this year. Most Democratic voters on the Coast still haven't returned, and although we might pick up a few around Hattiesburg and points north, where those people evacuated to and are still living, I think net we lose 2-3 seats in South Mississippi.
In the Senate, things are wildly unpredictable, but when in doubt, bet on the power of incumbency. Mississippi legislators like to die in office, and Mississippi voters like to let them. I don't think we lose much in the Senate, because if we lose a seat on the Coast, we get it back in Hattiesburg.