They aren’t even sworn in yet, and the handicappers are ready to write their political obituaries. So goes life in Washington, I suppose. And, truth be told, here on Daily Kos, too. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post on his The Fix blog:
Yes, we know it's way early to be talking about House races -- heck the winners in last month's midterms haven't even been sworn into the 110th Congress yet. But politics never stops. Like it or not, incumbents are already preparing campaigns for 2008 and challengers are getting geared up.
Cillizza went alphabetical by district, saying he’s not ready to handicap rankings. Most of the most scandal-ridden districts are included, with the idea that "clean" Republicans, free of the baggage of the page scandal, Abramoff and Delay, and so on, will have improved prospects. The text summarizes Cizzilla’s remarks. The parenthetical comments are mine.
- Jerry McNerney (CA-11) - Pombo has yet to rule out running again. (It that respect, it will be interesting to see what the FEC says about his fundraising efforts in the January.) report.
- Vern Buchanan (FL-13) - Cizilla’s opinion is that Jennings is hurting the Dems chance to take it later by continuing to fight the result.
- Tim Mahoney (FL-16) - It was close, and the 2008 Republican will certainly have better circumstances than sleazeball Mark Foley’s last-minute replacement, Joe Negron.
- Jim Marshall (GA-8) - (Not even a Freshman, since he was first elected in 2002. Cillizza justified its inclusion because of Georgia’s mid-decade re-redistricting.)
- Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20) - She’ll have a harder time against a fresh fighting recruit, especially given the large registration advantage in the district.
- Robin Hayes (NC-08) - Larry Kissell has already announced a rematch for 2008. Hayes only won by 329 votes this time.
- Jean Schmidt (OH-02) - Paul Hackett hasn’t ruled out running again, and has a decent shot at taking it. Victoria Wulsin might run again.
- Zack Space (OH-18) will have a harder time of it with a scandal free Republican opponent. (Though the Ohio Republican party probably won’t be purged of all its rancid decay even by 2008.)
- Chris Carney (PA-10) will have the same problem as Space in OH-18.
- Nick Lampson (TX-22) - Same as Space & Carney. (But perhaps less so. He’s served in the House before.) The Republican primary field is likely to be big, and rough.
Most of these will depend on how well voters like how the Pelosi House governs. (That and how monumentally the Bush White House continues to screw up!) Might I suggest that we all adopt a candidate and make modest monthly contributions throughout the term? To that end, I’ve included links to all the Democratic incumbents above. We’re all talking about the various races all the time. Why not put a little money where our mouths are?