Yesterday, I covered the downstate part of my plan to gerrymander Illinois to elect more Democrats (see it here).
Today, I cover the Chicagoland part, with the 12 remaining districts. The principle is still the same: try to elect as many Democrats as possible, while trying to keep townships and Community Areas (within the City of Chicago itself) and NOT violating the 1965 Voting Rights Act to protect Majority-Minority districts.
Maps and more, after the flip.
The state of Chicagoland is this: Democratic strength is concetrated in the city and close suburbs (Evanston, Cicero, etc). Suburban Cook County leans Dem, with Republican pockets in the far Northwest (Barrington, Palatine) and far Southwest areas (Orland Park, Palos, Lemont).
Going out further, DuPage is known for being heavily Republican, but features Republican strength spread out through the entire county, with Bush having recieved no more than 58% in any one of 9 DuPage townships.
Lake County is split rather evenly (voted for Bush by 2%, but also for Blago by 3%), very Dem-leaning in the southeast corner, gets more Republican the more west and north you travel; the exceptions are heavily Democratic Waukegan(65-34 Kerry) and Dem leaning Zion(53-46 Kerry) in the north along Lake Michigan.
Kane County is rather rural/exurban in the west and consequently Republican. Offsetting this is, in the Southeast has Dem-leaning Aurora (57-43 Kerry), and in the Northeast slightly Republican Dundee and evenly split Elgin (49.8-49.4 Bush).
McHenry County has is by far the most Republican jurisdiction...no surprise, it is also the most rural and exurban, having given Bush more than 60%.
Sadly, I'm pretty much clueless about Will County another rather evenly split county(52% to Bush, a plurality of 46% to Blago), other than Monee Township/University Park would lean Dem. The majority of the population, however, lies in Joliet, Naperville, and Bolingbrook, which I have just about no knowledge (or data) about. (Will County residents/anybody familiar with the area please fill us in.)
I would not be surprised if the Dem nominee in '08 carried either Will, Lake, or both. (DuPage...needs some work.)
Electing 8 Dems and 4 Republicans isn't awful, but this ratio could be changed to 10-2, or even better.
For a map of the entire state, please refer to yesterday's diary.
The new map of Chicagoland would look as follows:
A close up of Chicago City, by community area, for you Chicagoans (right click/ctrl+click and "hit view image" to see it in its full detail):
A District by District Analysis
District 8 (the old 11th), Jerry Weller(R):
The new 8th (the three-pronged orange district) is rearranged, with the downstate portions being recentered on Kankakee County, "incumbent" Jerry Weller lives one county over, in Grundy. The district starts in Kankakee, taking in only the city and nearby areas before moving to the vast majority of Will County (minus Monee Township given to Jesse Jackson, and Lockport, Homer, New Lenox, and parts of Manhattan Townships). The district then takes in Naperville Township in DuPage County and Dem-leaning Aurora Township in Kane County. The net result is a roughly 51.6% to 47.6% Bush district, but this is unverified (I have no Will or Kankakee County township data!) A Democrat could easily win here though, given Naperville and Aurora generated a +1,000 vote margin for Kerry, and Kankakee City probably leans Dem. Furthermore, Will County voted for Blago in November.
District 9 (the old 13th), Judy Biggert(R):
It's no secret that DuPage County is rather Republican, and this district (the roughly L-shaped blue one) attempts to force the more Republican areas together. Included are Downers Grove and Milton Twps (the two most Republican in DuPage). Without Milton Twp, we'd probably call her "Congresswoman" and not Tammy. Joining them is Lisle, Winfield, and part of Wayne. In the west, this district takes in Kane County between Elgin and Aurora, most notably Batavia. In the south, this district picks up the remaining Will County townships, connected through Lemont Twp, the 61% Bush township in Southwest Cook County. Best of all, the odious Peter Roskam's home in Wheaton (Milton Twp) is included here, as is Judy Biggert's Hinsdale residence (Downers Grove). Even with all that Republican-ness, this district gave Bush only about 55.8% to Kerry's 43.3%.
A slightly important note, before we move on:
(While we're free to discuss what the VRA means, and how many African-Americans or Hispanics must reside in a district, I played it safe, especially in light of LULAC/Travis County/GI Forum v. Perry, I didn't want to risk it and aimed for at LEAST 55% minorities, since TX-23 contained 51% Hispanics but was ruled illegal anyway. I am well aware that that may be because of the closeness of the Cuellar-Bonilla matchup in 2002, among other factors. Feel free to dispute my interpretation of the VRA, Shaw v. Reno, Hunt v. Cromartie, LULAC v. Perry, and what is explainable on grounds of race and what is not, but this is also not the focus of this diary. Furthermore, ensuring that minority Democrats can get elected in will more likely sustain Democratic loyalty among these minority groups.)
District 10 (the old 4th), Luis V Gutierrez(D):
Now we move into the city of Chicago itself, this district (the small U-shaped blue) is a revision of the Hispanic-majority "fuzzy earmuffs", since the Lower West Side and the Near Northwest Side around Logan Square have high concentrations of Hispanic residents. The old district stretched all the way to the Cook-DuPage line, but that really isn't necessary: the two pockets are connected by Cicero, Berwyn, Forest Park, River Forest, and Elmwood Park. This district, while still U-shaped, is not nearly as egregious as before...the narrowest parts of this distrct before were about one city block wide! It gave Kerry about 76.9% to Bush's 22.6%, subject to slight adjustment. The district is about 63.4% Hispanic, well enough to satisfy the VRA.
asideChicago's presidential numbers are also subject to adjustment, since while I do have precinct data, I do NOT feel like finding which precincts lie in which Community Areas, and calculating vote totals that way. So I assumed all of Chicago's community areas voted for Kerry 81-18. I'm well aware this underestimates Dem performance on the South Side and West Side (since these areas are more Dem) while overestimating it on the Northwest Side and Far Southwest Side (since these areas are more Republican). This aside applies ONLY to the City of Chicago, and not suburban Cook County. end aside
District 11 (the old 7th), Danny K Davis(D):
The district is the "head" between the "earmuffs" (the L-shaped orange). This district starts in the west in Oak Park and the neighborhood of Austin, heads east to the Near North Side and the Loop, and then proceeds South to Kenwood and Washington Park. This district voted 81.0%-18.5% for Kerry (numbers unverified, read the aside). Exactly 57.55% of the district's residents (or 376,189 persons) is African-American.
District 12 (the old 1st), Bobby Rush(D):
This district (the bell-shaped green) is one of two South Side-based constituencies. Starting in Englewood, taking in a wide swath of the western part of the South Side, leaving Chicago and entering Worth and Calumet Townships, as well as Markham in Bremen Township. This district is about 58.7% African-American, and voted for Kerry 73.4% to 26.1% (an underestimate of Dem performance, read the aside).
District 13 (the old 2nd), Jesse Jackson Jr.(D):
This distrct (the easternmost yellow) is the last majority-minority district. It takes in the remaining sections of the South Side and Bloom, Thornton, and Rich Twps in Cook County and Monee Twp in Will County (home to University Park). This district voted 77.0% to 22.5% for Bush...No, not really, it voted that for Kerry. The district is about 60.01% African-American.
District 14 (the old 3rd), Dan Lipinski(D):
This district (the middle pink) is a Southwest-side centered district; it reaches from Armour Square and Chinatown out to the Southwest suburbs in Palos, Orland, and Bremen Twps. This district voted for Kerry 61.8% to 37.6% (subject to readjustment since the Southwest Side is more Republican than Chicago on average).
District 15 (the old 6th), Peter Roskam(bleachhhh, er...R):
This district is substantially altered, with its Republican core in DuPage removed. What remains of DuPage in this district (Bloomingdale, York, Addison and part of Wayne Twps) voted for Bush by less than 7%. Proviso and the majority of Leyden Twp, with a small section of Schaumburg Twp (which combined gave Bush only 29.7% of the vote), and 54,120 Chicagoans are added, generating a 55.0% to 44.3% Kerry constituency (a slight overestimate, read the aside). Incidentally, Tammy Duckworth actually lives in this district now, her residence in Hoffman Estates (in Schaumburg Twp) is added to this district. Peter Roskam (being one of the members of Congress more disagreeable to me) wouldn't stand a chance here, even though his home is actually now in the 9th.
District 16 (the old 8th), Melissa Bean(D):
Melissa Bean may not be one of our favorite members of Congress, but she's a Democrat who should be protected, at least a little. The reconfigured 8th (the northernmost pink), loses some northeast Lake County townships (Zion, Benton, Warren), removes part of Schaumburg Twp, adds the part of Palatine that had been Mark Kirk's, and the part of Hanover Twp that had been Roskam's. Bean's base in Barrington is kept, and added are Dundee and Elgin Twps in Kane County. Though Kerry was punished 58-41 in the Lake County part of this district, Bush beat Kerry here 54.33-44.86%, a full 1% better than what Bean had been dealing with. Additionally, Republican-heavy exurban McHenry County is removed. Dundee and Elgin have more suburban-ish Republicans, the kind that is open to voting for Democrats (like the Philly 'burbs) and are trending Dem rather quickly. McHenry has more exurban Republicans...the kind that stay Republican (like the Twin Cities 'burbs beyond Hennepin County in Minnesota). This should be enough protection in the short run and has an even better long-term outlook for Bean (and any pro-business Democrat after her).
District 17 (the old 10th), Mark S Kirk(R):
This district (the northernmost blue) had already been in serious jeopardy for the Republicans with the coming of Dan Seals, but eluded us barely in 06. The new district picks up the townships that Bean's district loses (which are slightly Republican leaning). However, a large section of Republican leaning-Libertyville Twp is removed, the district now extends further south, taking in slightly Dem leaning Wheeling and Northfield Twp, but more significantly, Niles Twp, where Kerry scored 65%. This results in a 53.86% to 45.51% Kerry district, a 2 point improvement that should make the difference.
District 18 (the old 9th), Jan Schakowsky(D):
While I probably could have been more ambitious in taking Dem votes from Schakowsky and giving them to Kirk, Schakowsky is my adopted representative (better than my other representative, Al Wynn...), and I wanted to make sure her district (the orange one along Lake Michigan) was safe. She takes Shields and most of Libertyville Twps in Lake County, and New Trier Twp from Kirk. She loses the western portion of her current district west of Jefferson Park, but keeps part of her Evanston and Chicago base, south from the Evanston line to Albany Park and Uptown. This keeps her district 73.7% to 25.7% Kerry, and perhaps best of all, one particular Mark Steven Kirk becomes one of her constituents (as do the rest of his neighbors in Moraine Township).
District 19 (the old 5th), Rahm "Rahmbo" Emanuel(D):
Rahm's district (the long yellow district) probably experiences the most changes. While he keeps Lake View and Lincoln Park, his home in North Center, he takes on Norwood Park (the most Republican neighborhood in Chicago...which doesn't really say much). More significantly, Chicago city neighborhoods are swapped for Elk Grove, Maine, and part of Schaumburg Twps, making the district (much) more suburban in nature. But since Kerry defeated Bush by a 5,500 vote margin in suburban parts of the district and the Chicago city portions would only add to that margin, Rahmbo should be ok, my current (overly optimistic, read the aside) prediction is 67.5% to 31.9%.
So say bye-bye to Roskam and Kirk, and possibly to Weller. That could, concievably, shift the Chicagoland delegation from 8-4D to 11-1D. Concievably. That, paired with a +1D shift in the Downstate delegation means that Illinois could potentialy be 14-5D delegation...not bad for a state that was 10-9R just 4 years ago.
So there you have it...Speaker Madigan, Governor Blagojevich, Mayor Daley...there's the plan, now can we use it?
In the works are both cleaner and Democratic gerrymanders of other states. Stay tuned, consider this an occasional series?