The Iowa caucuses were on January 19. The Wisconsin primary was on February 17. If the wire services are to be believed, the field has been winnowed from nine to two in a single month, and we have a clear front runner for the nomination in John Kerry.
We are in the same place now, as we would be if we had just completed the first round of a French-Louisiana-Denver style multi-round election. Seventeen states (and Dems Abroad) particiated in the first round, narrowing the race to two front runners. Perhaps another 17 states will participate in round two between Kerry and Edwards (three minor contests, March 2 Super Tuesday and March 9 Southern Tuesday). The odds of the remaining states having any say over who our nominee will be are exceedingly small -- they are the tie breaker states in the unlikely event that the first two rounds aren't decisive. (I'm in one of those states). The convention itself will break a tie only in the exceedingly unlikely event that the tie breaker states don't resolve the issue.
The calendar is slowly growing more compressed, but the system is working basically accorindg to plan. Early states winnow most candidates out of the race (either formally or de facto), and Super Tuesday and Southern Tuesday pretty much proclaim a winner.
Certainly, from this day forward, "retail politics" makes little sense. Super Tuesday and Southern Tuesday are national events where the two remaining candidates will be campaigning on a national scale. From now on, local media takes a back seat, and national media is what matters.
Suppose that I'm a traditionalist, and think the system is basically fine. Early primaries are important as a way of weaning out the also rans at a point when no one can afford to play to a national audience. Their extra power encourages them to pay more attention to the crowded field.
Does it do any harm to move all of the late primaries up to the Southern Tuesday March 9 primary? Or perhaps a March 16 "Tie Breaker Tuesday", so that those of us in Colorado and New Jersey and a dozen other states have some impact on the nomination process?
Or, better yet, why not make Super Tuesday really super, and just have every state that isn't an "early primary state" vote on the same day. Maybe this could even be moved back from March 2 to a few weeks later, to give candidates time to make the last push.
The reality is that if you haven't moved beyond "retail politics" as a candidate by Super Tuesday, you are toast. This would at least give late primary states some say.