Increasing evidence is emerging that the Iraqi resistance is losing the war in Iraq. From a tactical standpoint, the US has more firepower than the resistance can muster. From a political standpoint, two of the three big interests in Iraq, the Shi'ites and the Kurds, have vastly more to gain by quelling the resistance than allowing it to continue, the third major group - the Sunni's - are by no means united behind the Ba'athists, and will likely increasingly try to arrange accommodations with the US.
Bombings will continue, and US soldiers and Iraqi's will continue to die for the foreseeable future, but in all likelihood not at a level that would cause a dramatic shift in US policy. The good news is that the fewer US boys and girls should lose their lives, and Iraq likely will become a more stable place over the next year.
The latest evidence of this is the letter captured by the US Army stating:
- That the resistance was having trouble recruiting new members and having a more difficult time finding Sunnis willing to let them use their homes and property as bases of activity
- That in response to this the resistance will try to spur a civil war between the Sunnis and the Shi'ites
This sounds like a desperation tactic to me, which is likely to fail. The resistance seems increasingly unable to hit military targets and is focussed on terrorizing civilians. This can only backfire, and likely the resistance is finished as a major challenge to US power. Bombings will continue of course, and US soldiers and Iraqi's will continue to die for the foreseeable future, but in all likelihood not at a level that would cause a dramatic shift in US policy.
The good news is that the fewer US boys and girls will lose their lives, and Iraq likely will become a more stable place over the next year. The bad news of course is that the Bush team will play any advantage in Iraq to their advantage in the next election.
My question is this. Assuming the letter is legitimate and accurately states the shape of the resistance, and assuming that conditions in Iraq improve between now and the election, how should the Democratic candidate combat the triumphalism likely to come from Bush without looking like they want the US to lose the war?