From George Washington University's non-partisan
Campaign Finance Institute:
Congressional candidates of both parties are poised for a serious battle over majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2006, according to an early review by the Campaign Finance Institute of available reports filed with the Federal Election Commission on January 31, 2006. The summary figures cover the twelve months from January 1 through December 31, 2005.
Incumbents and open seat candidates representing both major parties in 2006 are well ahead of their inflation-adjusted pace in 2000, 2002 or 2004 (see Table 1). But even more impressive are the gains shown by congressional challengers. The median Democratic congressional challenger raised more than five times as much in 2005 as in 2003. The median Republican challenger raised more than four and a half times as much in 2005 as in 2003.
Potentially more significant for a partisan tilt in the fall is this: the Democrats so far have attracted more than twice as many challengers as the Republicans. Democrats in 101 congressional districts have filed reports with the FEC, compared to only 39 Democratic districts with Republican challengers.
50-state strategy, here we come! The whole report paints a great early picture for Democrats in the battle for the House. We have more challengers, better-financed candidates in open seats, and better-financed candidates in marginal seats. The bottom line?
"It's far too early to say how close an election nine months from now will be," said Michael J. Malbin, executive director of the Campaign Finance Institute. "But it is not too early to say that both parties are priming their muskets for a shoot out. There may or may not be a national tide. But if one develops, enough Democrats on a district-by-district basis look as if they will have the money to put control of the chamber at issue." This makes the 2006 election potentially far different from the House elections of 2002 or 2004, when few political analysts saw this much at stake.
Update: Nathaniel Ament Stone does the hard work and ranks the top House races this cycle. Great stuff.