First of all, DavidNYC has gotten his grubby little mitts on an
internal poll in OH-16:
Party Preference
Vote Dem: 46
Vote GOP: 42
Re-Elect Numbers
Re-elect Ralph Regula: 39
Consider someone else: 20
Definitely someone else: 23
These are incredible numbers. This is Ralph Regula's district, which was contested by Jeff Seemann in 2004. As DavidNYC noted, Seemann is not a credible candidate for 2006. We need a top-tier candidate to seriously contest this very winnable seat.
Meanwhile, Bob Ney in OH-18 is also looking like damaged goods, and is the odds-on favorite for the next Republican to be indicted. To make matters worse, the Washington Post reports that Ney is running behind in internal GOP polls:
Ohio Rep. Robert W. Ney (R) appears to be at the center of the pay-to-play schemes of Abramoff and has been informed by federal investigators that he may be indicted. Ney has pledged to run regardless but is trailing his two little-known Democratic opponents in internal GOP surveys.
And more on reporter Chris Cillizza's WaPo blog:
Brian Walsh, spokesman for Ney, said that voters in the district "are aware of the Abramoff issue but it is not an issue that affects their daily lives." Walsh added that there is a "big disconnect between how people in Washington look at it and how people in the district look at it."
Other Republicans -- outside of Ney's direct orbit -- are decidedly more skeptical about the impact of Abramoff on Ney's race for a seventh term, pointing to internal polling that shows Ney trailing both [Chillicothe mayor Joe] Sulzer and hotel developer Zack Space in hypothetical election match-ups. Even more troubling for Ney, the surveys seem to indicate that, regardless of the eventual result of the federal investigation, voters have decided that he has the taint of corruption on him, according to sources familiar with the numbers.
That Ney trails two unknowns is bad, bad news for both him and the GOP.