It has been almost a week since the special election down in San Diego. Brian Bilbray won the right to face off against Busby, but will Roach/Kaloogian/Morrow etc back off and not go for the primary win? We have a very unusual situation here and it is clear the GOP is split on how best to proceed.
Let's lay out the situation and then take a look inside the Republican mindset.
On June 6th the run-off for CA-50 for the right to serve in the House until next January is at stake. Busby and Bilbray, the former Congressman and lobbist will face off on the ballot. The same ballot will hold the primary for the November general election. The vast majority of the Republicans who ran last week will be on the ballot. Whether or not they run to beat Bilbray is another story.
Bilbray racked up a pretty moderate record when he served in the House. He was the pick of the GOP establishment, but is drawing the ire of conservatives who see him as a part of the class of '94 who have presided over an expansion of the governmental budget. They sent out nasty slate mailers, threw up microsites during the special election in order to draw more attention to the fact that Bilbray has been employed as a lobbyist since he lost his re-election to the House in 2000. All of this resulted in a narrow win for Bilbray over the self-funded political neophyte Eric Roach.
Now Republicans have to figure out if they will contest Bilbray for the primary slot. They risk damaging his ability to beat Busby if they do. However, many conservatives really cannot stand Bilbray and are encouraging Roach to fight for the nomination. Right now it appears that both the California Republican Assembly (CRA) who backed Morrow and Jon Fleichman who runs the influential Flash Report website are the main figures pushing for Roach to run a real campaign.
CRA considers themselves the "The Consciousness of the Republican Party" or at least that is what Reagan once said about them. They are a boisterous group, but they do not have unlimited power. Arnold managed to beat them back when they moved to strip his endorsement earlier this year.
Fleichman used to be the Executive Director of the California Republican Party from 1999 to 2001. He is the sort of guy that Arnold calls before he announces he is choosing a Democratic chief of staff. Last week he called for Roach to think about contesting Bilbray. Saturday Fleichman wrote this:
My argument remains the same. Which is that the Republican Party nationally has a huge problem. And that is that the rhetoric that we have espoused to achieve our titular majorities in Congress, and the White House, is significantly disconnected from the reality of our acheivements. Case in point is that we continue to tell everyone that the Republican Party stands for limited government, lower taxes and lower spending. Yet with full GOP "control" of the government apparatus inside of the beltway, the federal government is larger than ever, taxes are higher than ever, and spending is greater than ever.
[snip]
At some point, every Republican is going to acknowledge that merely electing a majority who choose to affiliate with your party is not a victory. Republicans needs a governing majority of party members who believe in, and are committed to the GOP platform. We don't have that now, which is why EVERY House race that comes up is an opportunity to wage the battle and send a patriot to Washington, D.C. who understands that the really enemy to the Republican Party is not the Democrat minority, but the liberal Republicans who make a mockery of our Republican majority by stopped us from fulfilling our promises to limit the size and scope of the federal government.
Fleichman as you can see is a pretty principled Republican. He cannot stand what DeLay has done to his party, but that colors his decision about this race and may work out to our benifit.
Meanwhile the CRA continues to bash Bilbray:
There is no doubt the Busby will receive a score in the "F: range from the National Taxpayers Union. Brian Bilbray was in the "D" range. If you are picking your school academic decathlon team maybe the "D' student may be better than the one the flunks. But if you have a chance to take an A or even a B+ student or someone with that potential, why wouldn't you?
[snip]
The excuse is he had to vote that way to keep his old seat. While pointing out that didn't seem to work out well, we know from this spin that Bilbray will sacrifice principle to stay in power.
We have enough of those types in our party already. We also have enough "D" students that have betrayed their mandate.
Time for a challenge to set things right. Lets get better players on our team. Starting in the 50th CD June primary,
They are not arguing that voters should not vote for Bilbray in the run-off, but they are encouraging they vote for someone else in the primary. Fleichman argues today that strategy would increase voter turn-out, which might otherwise be repressed due to Bilbray's moderate past.
So the first question is whether conservatives will bother to turn out at all to cast a vote for Bilbray? More than ever, conservatives have a reason to just stay home if their choices are between a Democrat and a moderate Republican. After all, as you have read in these pages, moderate Republicans are to blame for the fact that despite having a GOP majority in both houses of Congress, there have been no significant spending cut bills passed and placed on President Bush's desk for signature.
What then would get conservatives to the polls? What would turn out GOPers who are frustrated with the lack of results in Washington, D.C.? Well, I am not an expert, but certainly a competitive GOP primary with a conservative running hard on conservative issues would seem to do the trick. If conservatives who ran in the 50th CD special election could unite behind one standard-bearer in the primary -- say conservative businessman Eric Roach (pictured above) who came in a close second to Bilbray, topping the other conservatives in the races), then there would be a reason for conservatives to turn out.
Busby wouldn't have a chance as the high GOP turnout for a competitive GOP primary would also ensure her loss as the dynamic would be similar to last week's election. While conservatives would be turning out to vote for Roach, they certainly would (with noses held) for Bilbray over the far-leftist Busby as a 'caretaker' for the rest of the term.
The establishment is pushing Fleichman hard to back down from what he has written. He mentioned taking calls from Bilbray and a host of current Representatives and party leaders. So far he shows no signs of cracking.
I for one am salivating over this type of thinking. It plays right into Busby's hands. This district, while it leans right is not blood red. Conservatives do not consitute a majority of voters. In order to defeat Bilbray in the primary they have to come up with a persuasive argument why he does not deserve to hold office. The CRA loves to harp on the fact that Bilbray is a lobbyist. In this environment it will allow Busby to show how different she is than these bickering Republicans.
In many ways this reinforces the luxuries Republicans have as the party in power. They can afford to risk losing a race over moderate records.
P.S. The SD rag is blaming Schwarzenegger for this Republican confusion:
This is the governor's fault.
In his finite wisdom, Arnold Schwarzenegger fused the 50th's special election runoff with the normal June primary.
Granted, the governor likely was making amends for the expensive special election he'd called in November, which cost San Diego County $5 million.
In December, county election officials pointed out that a single special election, whether primary or runoff, would cost $1.3 million. Schwarzenegger dutifully signed off on an election schedule that only a registrar could love.
P.P.S. Have you donated to Busby lately?