My guess is that almost anyone who really thought about it would have realized that the avian flu would get to the Americas sooner or later, with migratory waterfowl the most likely vehicle. Accordingly, the possibility that the H5N1 strain of the avian flu virus might be on our doorstep
right now isn't all that surprising.
Actually, it might even be here in the Bahamas.
More good news below the fold...
From Bloomburg News this morning, this
snippet:
"The disease may have its first foothold in North America. The Bahamas, 100 kilometers (60 miles) from Florida, is investigating whether dead birds found there carried the H5N1 virus. Test results from the Bahamian birds may be ready in four days. Experts have suggested that migration might bring bird flu to the Americas.
Apparently, from a WaPo two-sentence blurb, the dead birds were actually found on the island of Great Inagua, about 500 miles SE of Miami. This almost sounds better, but might not be, since that island is also at the junction of Cuba and Haiti at the so-called Windward Passage (map here -- thanks to UTexas). With all due respect to my Central and South American neighbors to the south, I'd be surprised if the public health officials there had even equivalent resources as we do in the United States. So, if we might be in trouble, well, enough said. It's why I've long advocated a broad World Health Organization (WHO) response for this type of potential pandemic rather than piece-meal national or even regional programs.
And, lest our Canadian friends feel "left out", you're not out of the woods either due to the import of live poultry from France. From the above Bloomburg article:
Canadian food authorities quarantined the eight Quebec poultry farms that imported live ducks and hatching eggs from France, which has confirmed H5N1 infections in birds, and collected samples from the farms for testing, the Canadian Press reported yesterday, citing the Canadian Food Inspection Agency. Canada has banned all live birds from France, the Press said.
This hasn't made any of the "major U.S. news outlets" (apologies to Kos) yet, save the Washington Post's buried little note, but that might be understood. After all, when faced with the realization that our current Administration is responsible for dealing with a possible pandamic, who wouldn't have the urge to play ostrich? We don't even need tin-foil hats for this one...
As a scientist with public policy training, I've been following this flu strain with increasing concern. As the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Current Situation page notes, "There is little pre-existing natural immunity to H5N1 infection in the human population. ... Research suggests that currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) in mammals than were earlier H5N1 viruses." (The full assessment webpage here. The WHO's webpage on the virus is here.)
Given that the main avian migratory pathways for the Americas go straight through the Caribbean, we'll probably have it here in our side of the pond soon enough even if these Bahamian birds died from other causes. I'll try to keep this updated as best I can.
Update #1: For those wanting more in-depth coverage, try the H5N1 blog devoted to this virus. Otherwise, I'll be watching this and other sources and try to make concise summaries for the dKos Community via my diary.
Update #2: Okay, last update for a while -- I really need to get some work done! -- but this just in from The Bahamas Journal: the Bahamian "Minister of Agriculutre and Marine Resources Leslie Miller told reporters ... that it was fair to say that there was no sign of [the H5N1] bird flu in The Bahamas, given that the pattern of the bird deaths did not point to the disease [snip]." I hope they're right. More studies of the dead birds continue in conjunction with experts from the United States.