Farhood Manjoo features a story in Salon today,
"The Iowa Electronic Markets are still going for Bush".
As I've written, I'm supporting Kerry for the White House, but on the IEM, I've been betting on Bush. This is not meant as a slight against Kerry -- it's just that I have doubts about his ability as a campaigner, and more important, I think that the Bushies are extremely good, not to mention that historically, incumbents running during a time of economic growth tend to win reelection. So far, alas, my bet is panning out, as measured not just by Kerry's shortfall in the polls but also by the current performance of Kerry shares on the market. As of Monday, traders on the IEM give Bush about a 70 percent chance of winning in November. To look at the graph of the IEM is to despair over the prospect of four more years -- a confident red line aims straight for the stratosphere, while a morose blue line nosedives.
It's an interesting analysis - he's suggesting that maybe the market is riding on an unrealistic Bush bubble.
Here's a thought: can't all of us in the blogosphere join in the IEM to start pulling the market back to reality? Let's go for it. I'm investing today in a Kerry win.