Only a few weeks ago, I was of the opinion that the Florida legislature was out of reach of the Democratic Party. Legislative districts were too well gerrymandered. It would be completely up to the success of the redistricting amendment to open up the legislature again to bipartisan competition. However, after looking at the House districts in Marion County for a blog post, I realize that ALL of the districts that ran through Marion County were competitive. So I decided that I should investigate just how "impossible" it really would be for Democrats to gain some seats...
My findings dictate that it is at least possible for Democrats to retake the Florida legislature under the existing system. I base my findings on party registration in each house district. I realize that in north Florida, Democrats aren't necessarily Democrats. However, Rod Smith proved that you can win in North Florida, amongst Dixiecrats.
Let me also say that I still strongly support the redistricting amendment. I worked on getting this amendment on the ballot a student organizer at UF. The existing system is undoubtedly biased and unfair. Despite the fact that there are more registered Democrats in the state of Florida than Republicans, the vast majority of legislative districts contain more registered Republicans than Democrats. We need the redistricting amendment to rectify this clear injustice.
Now, how is it possible for Democrats to retake the legislature if, in the worst case (yet possible) scenario that the redistricting amendment fails and Democrats are forced to compete in the current system?
For Democrats to retake the House, they need to get a 26 seat pickup from their currently abysmal standing of 35/120 seats (now that McInvale has switched sides.) I've divided possible target seats for Democrats into 4 categories: likely pickups, should be contested, pickup possibilities, and long shots. Likely pickups include currently Republican held seats where Democrats have a slight or large registration advantage (yet in any of these seats, independents are really the key to victory.) Should be contested seats include seats held by Republicans where no side holds a serious registration advantage (+- 2000 voters) and the seat is essentially a tossup. Pickup possibilities include seats currently held by Republicans which only has a slight Republican advantage in registration (+- 5000 voters) and any high turnout of Democrats combined with a small number of independents is all it takes to regain the seat. Long shots include seats held by Republicans that have a registration advantage, yet can be overcome by a swing of independents over to our side.
Likely pickups include 11 districts: 3(Benson), 16(Mahon), 22(Creutl), 36(McInvale), 49(Quinones), 64(Stargel), 65(Bowen), 66(Troutman), 77(Grimsley), 79(Attkisson), and 97(Goldstein).
Tossup seats include another 11 districts: 26(Patterson), 28(Huckill), 38(Brummer), 43(Dean), 44(Russell), 46(Legg), 47(Ambler), 52(Farkas), 57(Culp), 60(Homan), and 63(Ross).
Pickup possibilities include 4 districts: 6(Bense), 73(Kyle), 119(Zapata), and 120(Sorensen).
These districts equal 26 seats without long shot districts.
Long shot districts include 16 districts: 2(Murzin), 5(Brown), 20(Proctor), 21(Pickens), 24(Baxley), 25(Hayes), 29(Popell), 35(Cannon), 40(Gardiner), 50(Berfield), 51(Waters), 56(Traviesa), 62(Glorioso), 72(Kreegel), 81(Harrell), and 87(Hasner).
Over on the Senate side, we need a 7 seat pickup from our current standing of 14/40 senators. The same categories are applied here.
Likely pickups include 4 districts: 2(Peaden), 3(Argenziano), 7(Lynn), and 15(Dockery).
There are no toss up districts, but there are 6 pickup possibilities: 10(Lee), 11(Fasano), 12(Crist), 16(Sebesta), 25(Atwater), and 26(Hardiopolis).
Long shot districts include 2 districts: 13(Jones) and 17(Alexander).
So how safe are our guys? About as safe as you can get. Our 35 seats in the house and 7 seats in the Senate are practically impenetrable with the exception of one House seat (district 85, Shelley Vana), and one Senate seat (district 27, Dave Aronberg) which could be picked off by Republicans if there was an effort (or need) to do so. All of the other House districts are so overwhelmingly Democratic, that it would take an act of God himself to switch the seat over. Basically, our backs are against the wall in both Houses - and why is that exactly?
The first answer I can give is the fact that the FDP has been incompetently managed for the longest time, and we have allowed the Republicans to take all of the possible tossup and competitive districts. The second answer is, using standard Howard Dean lingo, "We haven't shown up." We're just not competing. The unfortunate drawback of the campaign to put the redistricting amendment on the ballot is that we've cemented into Democrats' minds that the state is so gerrymandered, that Democrats just can't complete at all. Every time I talk to a Democrat or a group of Democrats about the possibility of targeting legislative seats to at least gain seats in the legislature, I get the general same answer, "Look, Ray, the Republicans have made it so lopsided that running one of our guys is simply a waste of time and resources."
Well, now I'm here to call BS. Democrats are now taking this whole "we can't compete" thing too far. Its become an excuse for party leaders and establishment figures not to do any hard work - and to do what they have done for a quarter of a century - sit back in their comfortable chairs and complain. We already know from countless stories from the blogosphere, and from books like Crashing the Gate, that Democrats have a greater chance of winning if we compete in as many seats as possible. By ceding long shot districts and even safe districts to Republicans, we allow these representatives and senators to raise money with which they can give to Republicans in tough races. This won't happen (or the money given to struggling Republicans will a lot smaller) if they have a Democrat to fend off themselves.
While we undoubtedly need the redistricting amendment to pass, we have the ability to compete, gain seats, or a majority of seats under the current (though biased) system. And even if the redistricting amendment passes (and this is still a big "if"), this will not GUARANTEE a majority of seats for Democrats. It will make everyone's seat a lot more competitive, including the Democrat's current 35 seat fortress, which means we must be able to COMPETE.
As in so many of my past posts here at FLApolitics, it all comes down to organization and infrastructure. For Florida Democrats - we don't have that. The state party still, after over a year of opportunities (though I give them some slack over the fiscal mess last summer), has yet to do much at the grassroots level. The one thing it has done is force already poor county parties to pay an annual fee for the Voter Access Network (VAN) so the FDP can finally target voters. It has done little, if anything else.
In conclusion, it is possible for Democrats to retake the legislature, if establishment Democrats can overcome their denial, idleness, and sheer laziness and ineptitude, and work on building up the very institutions they'll need to compete for every seat, at every level.
CORRECTION: The FDP does not "force" local Democratic Parties to buy the VAN. It is only opitional. Yet if the VAN is to be effective to state and national candidates, every county needs one.