The other day I diaried on the state of the Democratic Party in Kansas at the local and state level. Among the compliments and questions was a request to analyze Kansas's four US House of Reps races in 2006.
Kansas is divided into four Congressional Districts. The largest district, by far, is the 1st district, which covers the western half of the state, plus some parts of east central Kansas. The 2nd district spans the eastern half of the state, with the exception of the Kansas City and Wichita areas. The third district is the Kansas City area, while the fourth district is Wichita and the surrounding counties. To see the district outlines on a map, click here.
Jerry Moran (R - Hays, KS), represents the 1st Congressional District. Representative Moran is extremely popular in his district, winning the 2004, 2002, and 2000 elections by at or above 90%. To be fair, the two times he was challenged by a Democrat, 1998 and 1996 (when he was first elected) he won with 80% and 72% of the vote. He is a member of the Agriculture, Transportation, and Veteran's Affairs committees, and is widely seen as being in Washington to help Kansans. Though he is a conservative (socially and economically) Republican, Democrats are not ashamed to vote for Moran, as he is personable, warm, friendly, and responsive to the requests of his constituents. (I have, in fact, voted for Moran, and while a Democrat did not run in that race, a Democrat probably would not have stolen my vote. Moran truly does work for his constituents.) Moran raised almost $80,000 this quarter, and has raised over $530,000 this campaign cycle. He spent $32,000 this quarter, and has spent $160,000 this cycle. Currently, he has more than 1.34 million dollars cash on hand.
Moran's opponent in the district is Democrat John Doll. Doll, a Kansas native who currently lives in Garden City, has a very large uphill battle in this campaign. His site is no longer, the drab, depressing site it once was, filled with pictures, links, and campaign materials. However, on the main page, only his depiction of the first district is truly eye-catching. Under his issues link are numerous audio files, discussing various issues (education, immigration, gay rights, etc.) This is a neat feature, except that all twelve audio files begin playing at the same time. It is up to the user to pause all but the file they desire to hear. Despite having what seems like 3,000 "make a donation" links on his website, Doll only raised $8,000 last quarter. He has raised $29,000 since he filed in summer 2005.
Doll appears to be a candidate running against Republicans, and not a candidate running for Kansas. The bulk of his issue page, excluding the audio files, is primarily driven by saying, "I'm not Jerry Moran." Doll is a Catholic, and says he plans on running as a conservative Democrat. According to his website, his primary reason for running is that he does not want Rep. Moran to run unopposed again. He has a large, varied district to convince to vote for him.
Randomly generated chances of a Democrat winning: 27%
This is getting long for a diary, and since I still have three more to go, I believe I will make each district an individual diary.