Everyone knows that
Republican Congressman Bob Ney is in hot water. Ney is tied up tight with Jack Abramoff and may get indicted next month. The Democratic Primary in OH-18 is getting hot. There are two prime candidates, attorney Zack Space and mayor Joe Sulzer.
About three weeks ago the Space campaign released the first polling numbers available. The numbers showed Space with a double digit lead and Sulzer virtually tied with two other less popular candidates. Sulzer's campaign did not deny the number but made it clear that just under half the electorate was still undecided.
The Sulzer campaign pulled a clever trick by showing the candidate contributed $100,000 to his campaign in the end of year report. This showed Sulzer with a huge financial lead and caused many to declare him the frontrunner. But the Sulzer campaign appended this report three times and turned the contribution into a loan that has gone untouched. To make it more interesting, Sulzer is collecting 8.5% interest off his loan. In just two months, Sulzer collected $2,215.69 from his campaign in the form of interest on his loan.
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A prominent blogger in Ohio assumes Sulzer will not touch the $100,000 loan. In addition, there's $6,000 in contributions that Sulzer cannot use in the primary. The contribution limit is $2,100. Individuals can give more but the money must be earmarked for the general election. Subtracting this from Sulzer's cash on hand shows he had $66,158.60 left to spend. Space showed $76,360.39 on hand. However, Sulzer made a decent media buy (view commercial here) and Space dropped some cash on mail. Neither have enough money to make it clear who's going to win. It's going to come down to late money. And here we go...
THE PLOT THICKENS
Watching the 48 hour notices (after the pre-primary and pre-general reports, candidates must report large contributions with in 48 hours) is a good indication of trending. If a candidate is doing well, leading in tracking polls, or expects something big to happen, they will receive some large contributions. We have the luxury of not waiting for quarterly reports for these numbers.
Since the April 15th cut off date, Sulzer has raised a reportable $4,100 from three donors (1, 2, 3). Space has raised a reportable $7,000 from five contributors (1&2, 3, 4, 5). Space has made three large contributions (not loans) to his campaign totaling $29,500. (1, 2, 3.) This is a good sign if you're a Space backer.
Ironically, Sulzer was gloating months back that he was the DCCC's pick and the established frontrunner in the campaign. Space's surge is a good indication that this candidate and his team know what they are doing. Sulzer's campaign causes some question marks to pop up even though he may pull out a win.
UNKNOWN
Sulzer is the only candidate to make a media buy and make his commercial public on his web site. Being an outsider, there is no way to know if Space is running any TV but it looks doubtful he has resources to go on air. However, Space has spent money on mail (enough for one round) and Sulzer has not. It is unknown who is winning the ground game, which is key in low turnout elections like primaries. A blogger reported Sulzer is working the field hard. With Space holding a huge advantage with local Democratic Party and organized labor support, he should have a good field team.
It should be an interesting final week setting the stage for a dramatic Election night. One problem: Both candidates are dropping everything they have in this primary and will have nothing the day after the election. No doubt Bob Ney will take advantage of this. Expect a large media buy to rip on the winner. Hopefully the DCCC will act swift.