Lost in all the woo-hooing and high-fiving over Tom DeLay's surprise withdrawal from TX-22 today is the one element we've all come to associate with DeLay himself:
motive. There IS motive in this move, to be sure, and it doesn't have anything to do with "sparing" the fine people of southern Texas from a nasty and potentially losing election.
Let there be no question - there is something in this for Tom DeLay. Follow me over the bump and together, we'll figure out exactly what it is.
Let's theorize, hypothesize and strategize.
Theory 1: All DeLay wants is a Republican butt in the 22nd district seat.
If we take his remarks at face value (and why wouldn't we, what with his impeccable track record of honesty), Tom DeLay is more interested in the party than in himself. As much as we like to assume that his out-of-control ego would disallow that curious prioritization, DeLay has done it before - namely, in the illegal redrawing of congressional districts in Texas. Sure, it benefited him temporarily, but it helped the party much more permanently.
I believe that for DeLay, party trumps everything. That would explain why he had already privately recruited his Republican successor, days before the public phase of this new game. From Time:
even before the embattled Texas congressman was revealing his decision to TIME in an exclusive interview, at least one potential Republican successor was already maneuvering to assume his seat. Late Monday night Sugar Land Mayor David G. Wallace, 44, a popular second term city leader whose name is on the ballot for a third term in the May 13 municipal elections, confirmed that he would make a bid for the seat.
On the flipside, though, DeLay DOES have an enough of an ego that it's hard believe he was actually concerned about losing in November. He's been going around the election block for over two decades now, and he knows that polling is borderline useless this far ahead of a general election. Given his propensity for defiance, I'm surprised he wouldn't stay and fight.
Theory 2: God Wants Him to get Revenge.
In the Faux News interview transcript, this little tidbit jumped out more than any other:
My liberal Democrat opponent has been raising money all over the nation. He's got Barbra Streisand's support, George Soros' support, Nancy Pelosi's support. He's gotten money from Boston, Chicago, Hollywood -- very little money from Houston, Texas.
His money will dry up. This is probably the worst day of his campaign, because he knows that any Republican that replaces me on the ballot will win this seat.
Is Lampson now in the unenviable position of
campaigning for (and funding) two elections - one special, one general? It's too soon to tell. From AP, via AOL:
It was not clear whether Texas Gov. Rick Perry would call a special election to fill out the unexpired portion of DeLay's term, or whether the seat would remain vacant until it is filled in November.
We're not talking about an election to determine a Republican nominee here; we're talking about a special election to fill the vacant seat - and that election would, presumably, include Lampson. Rick Hasen at electionlawblog.org gives us this insight:
if DeLay moves out of state and becomes ineligible for office now, the governor can call a special election. But the winner of that election would only serve out the rest of DeLay's remaining term. If the winner of the special election (which is subject to a majority vote rule with a runoff if necessary) is a Republican, presumably the Republican party will name that special election winner to fill the vacancy in the November general election. If a Democrat runs and wins the special election, the Democrat would serve only until the end of DeLay's current term. Whether or not that Democrat is Nick Lampson, Lampson is the one who already has the Democratic nomination to run in the general election in November. If Lampson won the special, Republicans would name someone else to run against him in the general.
Either way, DeLay's departure doesn't give Lampson the luxury of relaxing.
Theory 3. He's after a different gig, and it ain't with foster children.
The mass exodus has begun, boys and girls.
Andy Card. Tom DeLay. Scott McClellan (presumably). John Snow (reportedly). And two investigations - Plame and Abramoff - could yield a dozen more key "resignations" before election day.
By getting out now, DeLay is counting on the political world to forget all about him by November 7th -- and chances are that outside of Houston, they will.
But when Democrats win in November, you know whose ass will be in a sling? Ken Mehlman's. And who do you suppose will be standing in line for THAT job, Republican-loving credentials in hand? Tom DeLay, that's who.
That is, assuming he's still walking free. Which leads us to the final theory...
Theory 4: He's going to jail, and he knows it.
Not that he's done anything illegal or immoral, mind you. I mean, he said so himself - repeatedly!
This could very well be a classic case of "You can't fire me; I QUIT!" Beating the media and the left and the voters and his OWN party to the punch would be classic Tom DeLay. No, you won't have The Hammer to push around anymore.
So, those are my tinfoil hat theories.
What are yours?