If you're a Democrat, there is Nothing More Important than taking back at least half of the legislative branch this November. With the Republicans running the floor, Democratic legislation is routinely voted down or more commonly, not voted on at all. Since falling under the wrath of Republican control of both the executive and legislative branch in 2000, we have witnessed the sheer tyranny of a political party with a super majority. I think the taking back the senate is too much of a longshot, although I see plenty of strategically important gainsto meet that goal.
On the other hand, we only have fifteen seats to take back in the house. With the Republicans at 231 seats to our 201, the house presents a golden oppertunity. Compared to 1982, when we were in control by 51 seats, booting Hastart out of the speakers chair is a very viable possiblity. Plus, I can't think of a better way to piss off Republicans than to elect a San Fransisco liberal speaker of the house.
Below the fold, I've ranked our top fifteen pick up oppertunities as of now:
15.) IN-2 Chis Chocola (R) Joe Donelley (D)
Joe Donnelley was underfunded in 2004 and still managed to pull out a respectable 45% of the vote. He still faces an uphill battle against Chocola in the fundraising department and has raised 400,00 dollars to his oppoenents one and a half million. As long as Donelley gets more support from the DCCC than he did in 04, this seat could get competetive. If we want to take back the house, Indiana is a state where we MUST make gains. Along with fellow red state Arizona, I think our results in Indiana will be a gage for our overall success in 06.
15.) MN-6 (Open Seat) Patty Wetterling or Ellwyn Tinklenberg against likely Republican nominee Michele Bachmann
Bachmann is an outspoken social conservative and politically seems no different than current rep Mark Kennedy. Hence, I think it would be fairly accurate to judge our chances off of Kennedy's 04 numbers. Kennedy only got 54% against current Dem candidate Patty Wetterling and many of the experts consider this to be a top pickup oppertunity. I think Tinklenberg is the better candidate. Wetterling's decesion to abandon her senate campaign and to stab Tinklenberg in the back by entering this seat late will not play well with voters and it shouldn't.
14.) WA-8 Dave Reichart (R), Darcy Burner (D)
I've heard little to nothing about this seat but Reichart definitely should worry. He only eked out a 6 point victory last time around (52-46%) and has been one of the more inactive freshman Republicans. This district reminds me a lot of Pryce's in that it includes the metropolitan area of a major city yet still spreads into other more rural parts of the state.
13.) WY-AL Barbara Cubin (R), Gary Trauner (D)
Cubin is an anomaly. The overwhelming majority of small state federal politicans in the midwest seem to be the most popular in the country. The most popular senator according to the latest S-USa poll is Ben Nelson and Wyomings two senators are also towards the top of the list. Meanwhile, Cubin only managed to ganer 55 percent of the vote against a toekn opponent in the last election. The latest rasmussen poll released only a few days ago has Trauner down only 4 percent to Cubin. Trauner appears to be quite moderate, a neccesity in Wyoming politics. Once Trauner's name gets out in this small state, expect this to move way up on the list.
12.) AZ-5th JD Hayworth (R), Harry Mitchell (D)
Harry Mitchell is certainly a top tier candidate. A former mayor or Tempe, the largest city in the district and a former state senator, Mitchell has plenty of name recognition. Hay worth is one of the most conservative Republicans in the house and after surveying 1,200 Congressional staffer, Washingtonian Magazine ranked Hayworth the dumbest member of congress. The district, however, is only thirteen percent Hispanic. Arizona only has two congressional districts represented by a Democrat, both of which are at least 50% Hispanic. Mitchell also entered this race late and is going to really have to make up some ground in fundraising.
11) CT-2 Rob Simmons (R), Joe Courtney (D)
I think this is the second most competetive race in Connecticut. Joe Courtney was Simmons' 02 opponent. For each of his past two elections, Simmons has mustered 54% of the vote. Although this is the most Democratic district in CT with a Republican in congress, I've put it so low because Bush is not on the ballolt this time around. Instead, the Republicans get uber popular governor Jodi Rell who certainly won't hurt Simmons. Perhaps most importantly, however, Simmons was able to save the Groton sumarine base amidst the scores of military bases that have announced their closing as of late.
10) AZ-8 Open Seat
This is the seat being vacated by congress' only openly gay Republican, Jim Kolbe. Obviously, this isn't an overwhelmingly culturally conservative district. The Democratic primary is extremely crowded with no clear front runner. I've heard people on the blogosphere express support for Jeff Latas, an ex-air force pilot, but he has only raised $28,000. At this point, former state senator Gabrielle Giffords and anchorwoman Patty Weiss lead the pack. Giffords has raised over $500,000 while Weiss, the latest candidate to jump into the race, has raised nearly 200,000. Like Arizona's fifth district, there is not an enormous Hispanic community (at least by Arizona standards), which is important. This district is very purple and Bush won it by only 53% in 2004 and just over 50% in 2000. Also, expect a bloody Republican primary between Randy Graf, a darling of the Minuteman movement and former primary challenger of Kolbe and John Huffman, who was recently endorsed by Kolbe.
10) NC-11 Charles Taylor (R), Heath Shuler (D)
I think this is an appropriate place for this race. I think Shuler is a perfect fit for this seat. Even if he had to somewhat carpetbag his way in, he grew up in the district and has lived in Eastern Tennessee/Western North Carolina for his whole life (excluding those embaressing years as the Redskins QB). Furthermore, Shuler has a huge cash on hand advantage against Taylor, one of congress' wealthiest members. Be on the watch for Taylor to dump a ton of his own money into the race if it gets competetive. Still, that shouldn't be much of a problem because Shuler aint broke.
9) IA-1 Open Seat
Jim Nussle, the conservative Republican who has represented this slightly Democratic district since 1990, is running for governor. Right now, we have a crowded Democratic primary and none of the candidates are particularly impressive. Right now, it looks like Democratic attorney Bruce Braley will run against either Republican state rep. Bill Dix or businessman Mike Whalen.
8) CT-2 Chris Shays (R) Diane Farrell
Chris Shays is a total dipshit. He recently endorsed Lieberman for re-election hoping to get a rare cross over endorsement. Surprisingly, Lieberman asked himself what would a loyal Democrat do and reaffirmed his support for Farrell. Farrell got 48% in 2004 and is poised for a rematch. Watch for frustrated conservatives in this suburban New York district to stay home in protest of moderate Republicans like Shays and Governor Jodi Rell.
7) NM-1 Heather Wilson (R), Patty Madrid (D)
Heather Wilson is definitely facing her most serious challenge since coming to the house. Madrid is New Mexico's attorney general and is our only challenger that comes from statewide elected office. Like many of our targeted districts, it leans Democratic and marginally went for Kerry in 2004. Call me cynical, but it seems to me like Wilson is making a mad dash to vote as moderate as possible before the election. Most notably, she Wilson has scored points with moderates and Democrats for calling for a congressional inquiry into NSA wiretaps. Watch for this to be one of the most expensive races in the country as Wilson has raised nearly 2 million along with Madrid's 1.1 million.
6) IN- 08 John Hostettler (R), Brad Ellsworth (D)
Brad Ellsworth is doing amazingly well as far as fundraising goes. Although Hostettler always seems to escape competitive races, he is yet to hire a campaign manager and has a raised a pathetic 118,00 dollars through the beginning of last month. Compare that with Ellsowrth's 681,000. Unheard of for a challenger to be so much more organized than the incumbent. This is might be a little bit high for a seat in rural, culturally conservative Indiana but this Vanderjact county sheriff is the real deal.
5.)KY-4 Geoff Davis (R), Ken Lucas (D)
After Jim Bunning retired from the house to run for senate, no one ever thought a Democrat had a chance at winning this seat that stretches across the ultra conservative Cincinnati suburbs. In 1998, Ken Lucas shocked just about everyone in Washington as he returned this seat to Democratic hands after 32 years of Republican domination. Lucas faced Davis in 2002 and won with only 51% of the vote to Davis' 48%. Lucas, however, pledged when he first ran to serve only three consecutive terms and unlike the signers of the Contract of America, honored that pledge. Last cycle, Davis ran again and soundly defeated well funded, liberal columnist Nick Clooney (father of George). In his first term, Davis has amassed an extremely conservative voting record and joined fellow freshman Jean Schmidt in questioning John Murtha's patriotism. Furthermore, he hasn't been on his best behavior and has received money Duke Cunningham. Repub governor Ernie Fletcher's indictment shouldn't help Davis, either. Although Lucas might very well be the most conservative Democrat in congress if elected, he is squeaky clean and far, far less conservative than the incumbent.
4.) CO- 7 Open seat, Rick O'Donnell (R), Earl Perlmutter (D) or Peggy Lamm (D)
I thought about ranking this seat # 1. Democrats in Colorado are on the rise and both Lamm and Perlmutter have more impressive resumes than O'Donnell. This seat went slightly for Kerry and is a must win if we want to take back the house.
3.) IN-9 Mike Sodrel (R), Baron Hill (D)
This will be the third matchup between these two. Last year, Hill lost to Sodrel by only one and a half thousand votes. A poll I saw about a month ago had Hill ahead and his fundraising has been satisfactory. With Republican governor Mitch Daniels with one of the lowest approval ratings for any governor and Bush off the ballot that generally votes Democrat locally and Republican nationally, Hill just might take back his seat in Washington.
Top Pick Up for 2006
FL- 22 Clay Shaw (R), Ron Klein (D)
Klein is a state senator whose district overlaps with Shaw's. In 2004, Kerry won this slightly Democratic district by two percent. Shaw is no stranger to a strong challenge. In 2000, state senator Elaine Bloom lost by a mere 599 votes (and we all know how great Florida was in making sure every vote was counted that year). I don't know too much about Klein, other than the fact that he is the Democratic leader in the Florida state senate and more than qualified to be a US. Congressman. There are many senior citizens in this district and Shaw's support for privatizing social security might be enough to tip the balance in our favor. Also, Klein is fundraising like crazy, pulling in $1,800,000! That could very well be the strongest showing in fundraising for a challenger so far. It nearly equals twelve term incumbent Shaw's total of 1.9 million. With Katherine Harris as the senate nominee, 2006 looks like a horror in the making for Florida Republicans. That's why I've ranked this seat as our top pickup for 06.